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OF Morning Newsletter

03/05/2023
Source : ORISHAS FINANCE
Categories: General Information

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Pending the Fed's decision, European stock exchanges are expected to open higher. The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 4,294.85 points (-1.48%), the CAC 40 at 7,383.20 points (-1.45%), the DAX 40 at 15,726.94 points (-1.23%), the FTSE 100 at 7,773.03 points (-1.24%), the SMI at 11,423.33 points (-0.12%), the AEX at 744.31 points (-1.24%), the SMI at 11,423.33 points (-0.12%), the AEX at 744.31 points (-1.24%), the SMI at 11,423.33 points (-0.12%), the AEX at 744.31 points (-1.24%), the SMI at 11,423.33 points (-0.12%), the AEX at 744.31 points (-1.24%), the SMI at 11,423.33 points (-0.12%%), the BEL 20 at 3,760.41 points (-1.09%), the IBEX 35 at 9,082.00 points (-1.72%), the DJIA at 33,684.53 points (-1.08%), the Nasdaq at 12,080.51 points (-1.08%), the S&P 500 at 4,119.58 points (-1.16%), and the Nikkei 225 at 29,177.58 points (-1.16%), and the Nikkei 225 at 29,177.58 points 95 points (+0.12%

).

As for exchange rates, the change from the close mentions that in New York, EUR/USD is at 1.1026 (+0.24%), EUR/JPY at 150.03 (-0.11%) and USD/JPY at 136.05 (-0.37%).

The first-half results of BNP Paribas, Airbus, Aperam and CGG will be published this Wednesday. For its part, Stellantis presents its turnover for the same period. Imerys announced last night that it would remain focused on managing costs and cash to protect its profitability, after first-quarter results described as “solid” despite difficult market conditions. Alessandro Dazza, the CEO of Imerys, described in a press release a “weak economic context, marked by the continued withdrawal of our customers and low demand in several markets, in particular the construction sector in Europe and the United States.” For its part, Neoen confirmed its objectives in terms of financial results and production and published a 42% increase in sales in the first quarter, driven by a 32% increase in its electricity production

.

Ahead of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy decision, scheduled for 20:00 and to be followed by that of the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday, European equity markets are expected to rise at the opening on Wednesday. According to data from the IG broker, around 7:30am, the CAC 40 futures contract gained 44 points, or 0.6%, the FTSE 100 contract increased by 26 points, or 0.3%, and the DAX 40 contract gained 67 points,

or 0.4%.

This Wednesday, futures traders are betting on a further 25 basis points increase in the federal funds rate, bringing the target range between 5% and 5.25%. According to the CME Group monitoring tool, their positions indicate that they do not anticipate further tightening beyond this week. On the contrary, due to the expected weakening of the American economy, investors are increasing their bets on a fall in Fed rates over the coming months, thus contradicting the projections of Fed members, who for their part predict stable rates

.

For his part, Richard Clarida, former vice president of the American central bank, said the Fed should suspend rate hikes after a final one this week.

Janet Yellen, US Treasury Secretary, believes that the federal government could run out of money to pay its expenses as early as June 1 without raising the debt ceiling.

Wall Street ended sharply lower on Tuesday, amid concerns for the economy and banks. The Nasdaq Composite, rich in technology stocks, dropped 1.1%, the expanded S&P 500 index fell 1.2% and the Dow Jones Index (DJIA) closed down 1.1%. The main Asian stock exchanges fell on Wednesday, in the wake of American indices. At the end of the session, the Hang Seng Index on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange lost 1.6%. The Tokyo Stock Exchange and the Stock Exchanges

After the release of data showing a drop in job offers in the United States in March and amid concerns for the banking sector, yields on most US Treasury bonds ended lower on Tuesday. The three-month bond rate has reached its highest level in more than 20 years due to the continuing impasse in Congress over the debt ceiling. For Dan Raju, Managing Director of Tradier, “the Fed approaches its meeting [...] like a tightrope walker on a

tightrope.”


While traders await monetary policy decisions from the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB), the euro rose against the dollar on Wednesday. The single currency gained 0.2% to $1.1022 at 7:20 a.m. Alan Ruskin, head of international strategy at Deutsche Bank believes that the greenback's trajectory in the coming months will depend largely on the situation in Europe. According to him, “the euro benefits from a positive context linked to the tightening of the ECB's monetary policy and independent of the Fed

.”


Oil futures changed little this morning. Operators are worried about a worsening economic outlook in the United States and China. For Edward Moya, an analyst at Oanda, the oil market is facing the prospect of a weakening of the world's two largest economies, China and the United States. According to him, if the macroeconomic situation deteriorates, the selling movement could easily bring the barrel of crude below 70 dollars.

The June contract for soft crude (WTI) traded on Nymex sold 5 cents at $71.61 per barrel. And the July price on North Sea Brent was gaining 2 cents, at $75.34 per barrel around 7:20 a.m

.
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