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OF Morning Newsletter

08/05/2023
Source : ORISHAS FINANCE
Categories: General Information

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At the start of the week, European equity markets are expected to open close to balance. The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 4,340.43 points (+1.25%), the CAC 40 at 7,432.93 points (+1.26%), the DAX 40 at 15,961.02 points (+1.44%), the FTSE 100 at 7,778.38 points (+0.98%), the SMI at 11,554.24 points (+0.85%), the AEX at 750.48 points (+1.25%), the AEX at 7,778.38 points (+0.98%), the SMI at 11,554.24 points (+0.85%), the AEX at 750.48 points (+1.25%)), the BEL 20 at 3,799.88 points (+1.67%), the IBEX 35 at 9,147.30 points (+1.15%), the DJIA at 33,674.38 points (+1.65%), the Nasdaq at 12,235.41 points (+2.25%), the S&P 500 at 4,136.25 points (+1.85%), and the Nikkei 225 at 28,980.84 points (-0.61%)

.

In terms of exchange rates, the change from the close mentions that in New York, EUR/USD is at 1.1044 (+0.24%), EUR/JPY at 148.84 (+0.17%), and USD/JPY at 134.78 (-0.06%).


Due to the holiday no economic indicators need to be published. The business agenda is also empty.

Despite a renewed appetite for risk following the publication of an encouraging report on non-agricultural employment in the United States on Friday, European equity markets could open on a mixed note on Monday. According to data from the IG broker, the CAC 40 futures contract gained 6 points, or 0.1% at 7:35 a.m. The DAX 40 contract was unchanged. Due to a public holiday, the London Stock Exchange is closed on Monday

.

This morning, investors will review German industrial production statistics for the month of March. The chief economist of the European Central Bank (ECB) Philip Lane will give a speech that investors will be watching at the New Economy Forum in Berlin. After the announcement of continued job creation in the United States and the alleviation of fears in the banking sector, the New York Stock Exchange erased some of its setback for the week on Friday. Investors also welcomed the results released the previous evening by tech giant Apple, ending four consecutive sessions of declines.

Since the beginning of March, the DJIA and the S&P 500 have nevertheless experienced their largest declines in a week, falling 1.2% and 0.8%, respectively. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% last week. According to Ann Miletti, head of equity management at Allspring Global Investments, “If you're optimistic, you might think the economy is doing quite well based on the employment data

.”

According to the Chairman of the St. Louis Federal Reserve (Fed), James Bullard in his statement Friday evening, that the most likely scenario for the American economy was weaker growth and a less dynamic labor market, but not a recession. The central banker announced during an intervention in Minneapolis (North of the United States), “the imminent transition of the American economy is greatly exaggerated.” The main Asian stock exchanges moved in a contrasting manner on Monday. The Shanghai Composite gained 1.6%, the Nikkei Index lost 0.6% at the end of trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the Hang Seng Index on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange gained 0.8%.


After making progress on Friday in the wake of the jobs report, which showed that the United States created 253,000 net jobs in April - compared with 180,000 economists expected, US Treasury bond yields moved in a mixed way on Monday. The unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, its lowest level since 1969. Matt Peron, research director at Janus Henderson Investors, “the very good numbers in the employment report are proving problematic for authorities trying to control inflation

.”

The 10-year US Treasury rate dropped 1 basis point, to 3.429%, around 7:20 a.m. The stock player at 2 years old gained 3 basis points, at 3.937%

.


While the greenback is losing ground against the Japanese currency, the euro appreciated against the dollar and the yen on Monday morning. Deutsche Bank does not believe that the dynamism of the labor market in the United States will favor the dollar. According to the bank, the labor market in other countries remains healthy, especially in Canada, Australia and New Zealand, which should encourage other central banks to maintain a “cautiously restrictive” position. For the financial intermediary, “other central banks do not have the same difficulties in their banking sector.”

For Deutche Bank, given the problems of regional American banks, the outlook for the dollar is “slightly bearish over the medium term, at least against other major currencies.”


Crude Oil futures rose this morning. According to analysts at ANZ Research, tensions in the oil market seem to be fueled by signs of a resumption of demand in China. The June contract for light sweet crude (WTI) traded on Nymex was 43 cents at $71.77 per barrel. The July North Sea Brent contract earned 41 cents, at $75.71 per barrel, around 7:20 a.m. According to them, domestic flights in China are expected to account for nearly a third of the global growth in demand for kerozene in 2023. Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank believes that “while Chinese crude imports, which almost reached their June 2020 record level in March, also hold a pleasant surprise in April, this could give the market renewed

optimism.”
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