Mali has become a pocket of lawlessness in the eyes of the international financial community since a group of coup plotters, driven by good intentions, patriotism at gunpoint, deposed President Ibrahima Boubacar Keita disconnected from his people. Vox Populi vox dei. It was August 18th. Already a week of popular jubilation. After the popular euphoria, it's time for ringing and stumbling questions.
By arresting the President where a framework should have sufficed to enable him, even on instructions, to ensure the continuity of the State in the eyes of banks, credit insurers, donors, the National Committee for the Salvation of the People has removed its signature from Mali. This explains the safeguard measures of the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO), which had done the same in October 2014 when Blaise Compaoré was ousted from power in Burkina Faso, (to this day still, billions missing from the banks have not been recovered) or recently during the vacuum created in Guinea Bissau during the post-electoral crisis.

In Mali, the arrest of President IBK, the Prime Minister and that of the Minister of Finance caused a break in the continuity and the signature of the State, resulting in the freezing of its accounts. In other words, the compensations and various commitments of the Malian State will return unpaid and will generate costs that will have to be reimbursed. All government checks to providers in various markets are now in incidence of payment. Case of state subsidies to the cotton sector and other vital sectors. These commitments also concern the Malian government bond coupon for WAEMU and international subscribers.

The first country in the area to have formalized the cancellation of financial flows is Côte d'Ivoire by letter dated August 19, 2020 bearing the seal of Adama Coulibaly, Minister of Economy and Finance. First economic and financial power of the WAEMU, Abidjan accounts for 40% of the zone's GDP and 50% of the money supply in circulation.

It should be noted that the Ivorian banking sector includes three banks with a Malian DNA with a market share of 8 to 10%, or more than 1,000 billion CFA francs. No need to be a cleric to measure the weight of Malians in rental real estate in Côte d'Ivoire. The restriction measure will have temporary effects on several banks in the region holding coupons from the Malian state which they expect to be reimbursed at maturity.

Although we are not in the case of Côte d'Ivoire of the post-election crisis of 2010 when banks were nationalized, there are fears that the security crisis in Mali is now doubled by a coup d'etat bears the beginnings of an acute financial crisis. Country of cash, therefore short-termist, greater Mali must quickly close this complicated phase and above all avoid a long transition. Each day that passes is another question mark for bilateral and private lenders, anxiety for holders of Mali's debt coupons and a leap into the void. Although popular, because opposed to the inertia of President IBK, the coup is expensive and remains unprofitable in a context of strict supervision of banking regulations at national, regional and international level.

The consequences of the events are costly for economic operators faced with demurrage on their containers and cargo stored at the ports of Dakar, Abidjan or Lomé. Is there a mechanism for canceling these demurrage by ECOWAS, UEMOA or at State level? Will insurers agree to cover the loss of perishable goods due to a coup? Will the banks agree to defer their letters of credit or reschedule their loans because of this context already accentuated by Covid-19? In the middle of the cotton campaign, the cotton sector promised to be sold at 200 FCFA per kilo (the only serious exportable product from Mali apart, of course, from gold) and financed massively by local and foreign banks is threatened because of the border closure.

The pricing of letters of credit will jump as banker Ali Benahmed, guest of Financial Afrik, declared yesterday. (to view). Similarly, the US Department, which is quite touchy about the circulation of the dollar in the Sahel zone (in connection with the anti-terrorist and anti-money laundering laws) is closely monitoring the situation, pushing, through its compliance forms sent regularly to the major international banks, to raise the confirmation rates of commitments on letters of credit. For sure, the French revolution would not have taken place in 2020 given the tightening of international financial conditions. Let's hope that the soldiers return quickly to the barracks with the feeling of accomplished duty and the assurance that their grievances will be taken up by an elected civilian government and representative of the aspirations of the populations of this old empire cut in two and plagued by terrorism and clashes. inter-ethnic.