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Currencies: $ down despite a positive yield differential

05/10/2020
Source : zonebourse.com
Categories: Economy/Forex

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Sharp fall in the Yen against all currencies (-0.95% against the Euro, -0.5% against the Dollar) and also weakness of the Dollar which lost -0.5% against the Euro, towards 1.1780 /1.1798, despite the increase in the yield of T-Bonds by +6Pts towards 0.754% (biggest difference in 1 month) while the Bunds only show +3Pts towards 0.502%.

'A new poll by NBC and the Wall Street Journal shows Biden credited with 53% of voting intentions, compared to 39% for Trump, and his lead has been trending higher since last week's chaotic debate ', writes Danske Bank in a note released this morning.

The markets are no longer worried about a Democratic victory, the most 'extreme' measures of the left wing (Movement Sanders / Oracio Cortez) having little chance of being part of Joe Biden's priorities in the event of victory, the priority being the revival of the economy.
Charles Evans (Chicago FED) also mentioned the need for recovery plans taking precedence over FED action.
Rates will be kept at zero until 2023 and probably as long as inflation remains anchored below 2%, or around 2%.

The only number on the calendar in the US did not cause a stir in the FOREX: the ISM non-manufacturing index (Institute for Supply Management) stood at 57.8 in the United States in September, up nearly +1pt compared to 56.9 in August, while economists on average expected a deterioration towards 56.1.

In Europe, the latest PMI indices for 'definitive' services were published this morning: the composite index for global activity fell from 51.6 in August to 48.5 in September, highlighting the first drop in the activity since last May in France.

Eurozone growth approached stagnation in September, as evidenced by the IHS Markit composite PMI of overall activity which fell from 51.9 in August to 50.4, a level nonetheless slightly higher than its flash estimate (50.1).

The Pound Sterling gains +0.35% against the Dollar while the British 'composite' PMI deteriorates from 58.1 to 56.5, in the wake of 'services' which fell from 58.8 to 56.1 in September .

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