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Currencies: the Dollar supported by positive rate differential

17/09/2020
Source : CERCLE FINANCE
Categories: Economy/Forex

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(CercleFinance.com) - Ultra-calm post-FED day on the FOREX, with rare deviations greater than 0.2%: the Pound fell just 0.2% to 1.2940/$ while the BoE (Bank of England) evokes for the first time since the beginning of the Covid crisis, to which is added a Brexit which will not be a cakewalk with the EU (and the United States are also threatening in the event of non-compliance with Boris Johnson's commitments on Ireland).

The Dollar (-0.1% against the Euro at 1.1830) was not penalized by the decline on Wall Street (-2% in 48 hours for the S&P500) nor by the rather disappointing US figures published at 2:30 p.m.

The US Department of Labor announced that it counted 860,000 new applicants for unemployment benefits last week, a number down from the previous week (893,000, number revised from the first estimate of 884,000).

The improvement therefore reached -33,000 but analysts expected a more pronounced decline, to 850,000 registrations.

The Department of Commerce published a -5.1% drop in housing starts (CVS) in August in the United States, to 1,416,000 at an annualized rate, where the consensus anticipated 1.45 million .

The number of building permits, supposed to prefigure future housing starts, contracted slightly by 0.9% to 1,470,000, a level again lower than the average estimate of economists, which was 1.53 million.

The Dollar is benefiting from the decline in the yield on European sovereign debt (long rates have been falling regularly since September 1 in Europe) while the remuneration of US T-Bonds has remained relatively stable in the meantime.

Our OATs erased another 1.8Pt in basis to -0.24% -16Pts in 3 weeks, the Bunds posted -0.49% (-10Pts in September) while the T-Bonds went from 0.725% to 0.685%.

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