The full effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on African populations and economies remains to be determined. But as the consequences are felt, governments, civil society and the private sector can cushion the blow, if they act decisively. The timely deployment of public and private capital in sustainable, long-term investment projects can boost industrialization efforts, create jobs and mitigate the deadliest effect of the virus: poverty.

The projected decline in African GDP – the first recession in 25 years – is mainly due to restrictions and delays in international trade resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic. The importance of cross-border trade for Africa cannot be underestimated, as evidenced by the impressive continent-wide political will that led to the launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The magnitude of Africa's exposure to global trade is worth remembering: the continent's food import bill, well over $35 billion, is expected to reach $110 billion by 2025. According to BCEAO statistics, Togo's consumer goods import bill amounted to $704 million in 2019 alone, of which nearly 56% was spent on food imports. At the same time, raw materials account for more than 70 per cent of African exports, an even higher figure in the WAEMU region to which Togo belongs. As a result, the pandemic has had the dual effect of increasing the import costs of finished products while reducing the flow of raw material exports. The impact of these effects on trade is only beginning to be felt, including on food security. Reactionary protectionist policies aimed at preventing commodity exports – openly and surreptitiously employed by the governments of Europe and Asia towards South America and Africa – are only making matters worse. According to the World Bank, agricultural production in Africa could contract by 2.6 to 7 per cent if trade blockades persist. It is clear that a reduction in agricultural activity and production would exacerbate the downward spiral in sub-Saharan Africa, where some 60 per cent of the workforce is directly involved in industry. What solution can be offered to a continent that depends on the export of commodities and is threatened by reduced demand for raw agricultural products, protectionism and deglobalisation in general? Intra-African trade and the AfCFTA, obviously. However, for intra-African trade to be a panacea, Africa's infrastructure deficit and industrialization rate must improve dramatically. Togo has a long-standing thriving commercial industry focused on the capital Lomé, and the government has made industrial infrastructure development a fundamental principle of its 2018-2022 national development plan. In August 2020, the government announced the launch of construction of the Adétikopé Industrial Platform (PIA), which will host processing and manufacturing companies ranging from the food and beverage industry to the pharmaceuticals and clothing industry. Projects such as the PIA, a public-private partnership between Adétikopé's Integrated Industrial Platforms (ARISE IIP) and the Togolese Republic, can both combat food insecurity by increasing local production capacity and balance the trade deficit by exporting processed and finished products. For years, there have been urgent calls for investment in industry, energy and transport infrastructure in Africa, but time is running out. What is needed today is an innovative government eager to attract capital from agile investors like ARISE IIP. Private investment in Africa's agricultural infrastructure like this will not only create the direct and indirect jobs so needed today, but also represent perhaps the safest long-term returns in an unstable global economic environment. Nothing is more certain for the next decade than the powerful potential of Africa's youth and agriculture. (*) Shegun Adjadi Bakari is an advisor to Togolese President Faure Gnassingbé, specializing in financing for development issues. (**) Alain Saraka is Director of Strategy at Arise IIP, a pan-African infrastructure developer that designs, finances, builds and operates $2 billion worth of transport infrastructure and industrial zones in five countries in West and Central Africa.