Alain Guelennoc, Managing Director of Federal Finance Gestion

L'Agefi : Will the euro-dollar resume its rise without the European Central Bank (ECB) intervening again ?

Alain Guelennoc : The growth of the euro has remained limited. From 1.08 mid-May to less than 1.17 dollars today, it is less than 10%, and less than 4% in effective exchange rate (compared to a basket of currencies). This is minor, especially since the index of financial conditions has moved very little. The euro is therefore not expensive, as evidenced by the evolution of the zone's trade balance. The rise of the euro could continue, at least up to $1.25 in our opinion, before it is really a concern for the ECB.

More generally, how do you see the dollar evolving against the various currencies ? Doesn't the Fed seem too optimistic about the recovery in the United States?

The dollar remains the preferred currency in case of risk aversion. In the short term, it could rise again in the event of a resumption of the pandemic impacting global growth again. Given the growth acquis in the United States, it would take a very strong third and fourth quarters to meet the growth target of -3.7% of GDP over 2020 announced by the Fed. This seems unlikely given the persistence of the health crisis, and while the current electoral campaign does not allow for major recovery decisions.