The Transitional Authorities call on all citizens to scan the horizon to be able to climb together and successfully the mountain of challenges that stands in front of Mali. In this context, the recovery of the Malian economy, which has been sorely tried by the coronavirus pandemic before being weighed down by the ECOWAS embargo measure, must be at the top of the priorities, as underlined by the expert Modibo Mao Macalou who at the same time identifies avenues for 'action, through this interview he gave us.

Today-Mali: The embargo on Mali that ECOWAS has just lifted, what was your assessment?

Modibo Mao Macalou: In 1975, it was the Treaty of Lagos that created the Economic Community of West African States, abbreviated ECOWAS, which aims to promote economic and political cooperation between the fifteen member states. ECOWAS had suspended Mali from all its decision-making bodies "with immediate effect" after the political events of 18 August 2010 that led to the resignation of President Ibrahim Boubacar Kéïta.

And it had decided "the closure of all land and air borders and the cessation of all economic, commercial and financial flows and transactions with the exception of foodstuffs of first necessity, medicines, fuel and electricity, between the [other] ECOWAS member countries and Mali", inviting "all partners to do the same".

Pending the effective restoration of constitutional order, Mali was therefore suspended from all ECOWAS decision-making bodies, with immediate effect, in accordance with Articles 1 (e) and 45 (2) of the Additional Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance, and the provisions of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance adopted in December 2001, which established the will to erect strong political principles such as the opposition of the community to any accession to power by unconstitutional means.

It is good news that this embargo has been lifted by ECOWAS. But isn't this embargo a constraint to be turned into an opportunity, in particular by identifying better actions to be taken in the future with a view to Mali's economic sovereignty?

Mali has a very large diaspora abroad, about four million people out of the twenty million inhabitants and its economy is very dependent on foreign trade. According to the Bcéao, in 2018 the transfers received from the diaspora amounted to 565 billion CFA francs and three (3) main products dominate Mali's exports, namely non-monetary gold (69.7%), cotton fiber (13.6%) and live animals (5.4%).

Exports of non-monetary gold increased by 212.64 billion CFA francs (or 18.1%) in 2018, reaching 1388 billion CFA francs. Cotton fibre exports, for their part, amounted to 271 billion CFA francs in 2018, an increase of 47 billion CFA francs or 21.2% compared to the achievements of the previous year. Exports of live animals amounted to 108 billion CFA francs, almost at the same level as in 2017. These livestock exports consist mainly of cattle and sheep destined for the coastal countries of the subregion. Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal, the main recipients of this product, absorb respectively 25.5% and 41.2% of live animal exports. The port of Dakar absorbs 75% of Malian imports and exports and Burkina Faso is an important market for Malian products.

Do you have the impression that the economic issue is well taken into account in the Transition Charter?

I do not believe that among the eight missions set out in the Transition Charter of 1 October 2020, in its Article 2, that the issue of reviving the economy and the conditions for achieving inclusive economic growth are mentioned or taken into account. Numerous empirical studies suggest that strong, sustained and equitably shared economic growth in a country is one of the best ways to increase people's incomes, thus improving their purchasing power and living conditions. Therefore, a coherent, vigorous and effective economic policy to revive production, consumption and investment is inherent in achieving a stabilized social climate.

What are the major weaknesses of the Malian economy that need to be addressed urgently?

Mali is one of the largest countries in Africa. It is semi-desert, with a low population density. Mali has a specialized economy with very little processing (gold, cotton and live animals) constituting about 90% of exports and very vulnerable to exogenous shocks (fluctuations in commodity prices, consequences of climate change, and insecurity). These factors, combined with some of the highest population growth in the world, contribute to food insecurity, precariousness and instability.

Dependence on commodity exports weakens macroeconomic levers, creating tensions and trade-offs between growth-enhancing and stabilizing policies.

As a result, and as is often advocated, diversifying the economy and undertaking profound structural changes require the mobilization of significant long-term resources to finance development.

According to the World Bank, these factors, combined with one of the highest population growth in the world (about 1% in 1960 and 3% in 2019), contribute to food insecurity, precariousness and instability. The United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) ranks Mali 182nd out of 188 countries in 2019.

So what should be the priorities of the Transition to bring about a significant change at the socio-political level?

The appeasement of the socio-political climate is an important factor because it makes it possible to reduce political risk. The recent establishment of a 25-member government after almost four months without a government is a positive signal. It is important to strengthen human capital by providing jobs for young people who make up the majority of the population, nearly half of the Malian population under the age of 14. Decent and sustainable jobs must be achieved in order to improve productivity and competitiveness, by strengthening domestic demand, diversifying the production and export of goods and services with higher added value, improving access to basic social services, strengthening social protection, while reforming labour regulations.

It was imperative that the ECOWAS sanctions be lifted as soon as possible to allow the Malian authorities to revive the economy through appropriate economic measures (budgetary and monetary) to improve the living conditions of the population.

In your opinion, what is the role of the private sector for economic recovery?

According to the Central Bank of West African States (Bceao), the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Mali is supported by public investment in the primary (rural development) and tertiary (trade and services) sectors, etc., i.e. 39.3% of GDP and tertiary sectors (trade and services) or about 36.7% of GDP in 2018.

In 2014, the GDP growth rate of 7.1% reached 5.3% in 2017, then 4.7% in 2018, and finally 5.6% in 2019. The accumulation of physical capital and the increase in the productive capacity of the economy is one of the means to achieve export-led growth.

In the long term, it will be a question of moving towards a structural transformation of the economy by broadening the productive base of the economy and then transforming a significant part of national production to establish an industrially based economy. Above all, focusing on the reallocation of the most productive resources to export-intensive sectors that are well integrated into global value chains seems to be an essential condition for overall productivity growth.

Speaking of the private sector, we also think of the cotton filiére which is going through great difficulties. What recovery plan should be needed for the cotton filiére?

Cotton is the second most important export product for Mali (14%), after gold (80%) and live animals (7%) in 2018, according to the Central Bank of West African States. It is a strategic culture for Mali because it constituted (15) % of the country's GDP in 2018 and represented 271 billion CFA francs in terms of export earnings. The production of white gold supports about five million people, or about 1/4 of the Malian population.

In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic interrupted global value chains by slowing global trade and economic activities around the world. The government of Mali must review its support plan for the various economic sectors in Mali by giving pride of place to the cotton sector, through a recovery plan for the cotton sector. Indeed, the government of Mali must help revive the cotton filiére in Mali because following Covid-19, since the beginning of 2020, prices on the world cotton market have fallen by about 25%, following a global drop in demand and a drop in the price of oil. Among the measures that the Malian authorities could take, we recommend direct support to the hundreds of thousands of families who produce cotton by improving the price per kg to the producer to 260 CFA francs against 250 CFA francs initially proposed by the Government of Mali. We also suggest that subsidies should also be provided for inputs to cotton farmers, taking into account economic realities. The government of Mali could also consider the creation of a fund to support investment in cotton processing locally.

Your last word?

In fact, the main development priorities are the simplification of regulations, the establishment of a genuine rule of law, the improvement of infrastructure, the strengthening of productive capacities, the exploitation of export diversification opportunities and the identification of sectors with potential. high value added and value chain.

Financing industrialization and economic and social transformation is very expensive and requires as a priority significant domestic resources to meet the high financing costs. Government revenues and private savings are the main domestic financial resources in Mali. Mali's dependence on official development assistance (ODA), whose flows are declining, unpredictable and often subject to conditionalities that delay disbursement rates, should be substantially reduced. Also, the government must improve the efficiency of its taxation, substantially reduce illicit capital flows to the outside world, better capture (or formalize) the informal sector, eliminate tax preferences (exemptions) and improve transparency and fairness in the negotiation of contracts with companies. multinationals, especially in the fields of telecommunications and mining.