Inflation has reached its highest level in 30 months in Nigeria, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) which announced a rate of 13.71% in September 2020, up 0.49% from the 13, 22% recorded in August, against 12.82% in July.

The last time inflation reached such a high level was in March 2018, with a rate of 13.34%. Since then, Nigeria has been able to manage the rise in prices below this bar. With the 13.71% reported in September 2020, headline inflation also increased for the 13th consecutive month. “On a monthly basis, the overall index increased by 1.48% in September 2020. This is a rate of 0.14% higher than the rate recorded in August 2020 (1.34%)”, according to the Bureau of statistics.

In detail, official data points to a 14.31% year-on-year increase in urban inflation in September 2020, compared to 13.83% the previous month, while the rural inflation rate increased by 13.14%, compared to 12.65% in August 2020.

According to several analysts, the bullish trend will hold for the rest of the year, due to pressure on the food inflation sub-index and challenges in the currency market, among others. Moreover, the "food" index, which represents more than half of the inflation basket, is also at its highest level since March 2018, and vulnerable to supplements in a context of internal food shortages.

As a reminder, the draft budget presented on October 8, 2020 by President Muhammadu Buhari targets an inflation rate of 11.95% in 2021, against the 13.39% officially expected for the year 2020.