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OF Bulletin du matin

17/06/2021
Categories: General Information

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The Fed's more restrictive than expected announcements are expected to weigh on stocks. This Thursday, June 17, 2021, the Eurostoxx 50 shows a positive note of 4,151.76 points up 0.20%, the CAC 40 opens at 6,652.65 points (+0.20%), but the DAX 30 falls 0.12%        with 15,710.57 points. The upward trend continued  with the FTSE 100 at 7,184.95 points (0.17%), the SMI at 11,982.03 points (0.50%), the AEX at  733.50 points (0.34%) and the BEL 20 at 4,226.29 points (0.12%). The decline was noted at the level of the IBEX 35 which expects 9,202.20 points (-0.31%), the DJIA at 34,033.67 points (-0.77%), the Nasdaq at 14,039.68 points (-0.24%), the S&P 500 at 4,223.70 points (-0.54%) and the Nikkei 225 at 29,006.19 points (-0.97%).

The change in exchange rates compared to the close in New York shows an increase of 0.02% for EUR/USD (1.1999), a decrease of  0.02% for EUR/JPY (132.79) and a decline of 0.04% for USD/JPY (110.68).  

 

In France, McPhy meets this Thursday its shareholders in general meeting. On Wednesday evening, Vinci announced that it had won a "facility management" contract worth 491 million euros from the British Ministry of Defence. This seven-year contract, signed by Vinci Facilities UK Ltd, covers the management, maintenance and upkeep of the grounds and equipment works of the Ministry of Defence buildings for the South East region of the United Kingdom, the group said in a statement. Airport operator Groupe ADP said its traffic increased by 5.7 million passengers in May 2021 compared to the same month of 2020. The airports managed by the group welcomed 6.3 million passengers last month. However, this figure represents only 21.2% of passenger traffic in May 2019, the company said. The manufacturer of cryogenic membranes used for the transport of liquefied natural gas Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT) has received an order from the Korean shipyard Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) for the design of the tanks of four new LNG carriers "on behalf of a European shipowner".

European equity markets are expected to open slightly lower on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled that the first U.S. interest rate hike could come sooner than expected. At 7:30 a.m., the CAC 40 futures contract was down 13 points, or 0.2%, according to data from broker IG Markets. The DAX 30 contract was down 36 points, or 0.2%, and the FTSE 100 contract was down 30 points, or 0.4%. The Fed kept monetary policy unchanged on Wednesday but signaled that it may begin withdrawing its support measures to the economy sooner than expected to take into account progress in the recovery and accelerating inflation. The central bank has not changed its ultra-accommodative stance at this stage, but the majority of its members now believe that two rate hikes could occur in 2023. The updated forecast shows a federal funds rate of 0.6% at the end of 2023. When presenting their latest projections in March, central bankers estimated that policy rates would be kept close to zero until 2024.

The Fed on Wednesday raised its inflation forecast after its monetary policy meeting, expecting prices to rise excluding food and energy by 3% this year, up from 2.2% previously. The forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) growth has also been raised to 7% for this year and remains unchanged at 3.3% for 2022. For the time being, the central bank intends to continue its asset purchases at the rate of $ 120 billion per month as long as the page of the health crisis is not definitively turned. At his traditional press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the decision to reduce these purchases would depend on the pace of the recovery and that any adjustment would be announced in advance to the market. After these announcements, Wall Street ended lower on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Index (DJIA) lost 0.8% to 34,033.67 points, and the broader S&P 500 index fell 0.5% to 4,223.70 points. The nasdaq Composite, rich in technology stocks, limited its decline to 0.2%, to end at 14,039.68 points.

Investors will remain focused on central banks, with monetary policy decisions from the Swiss National Bank, Norges Bank and Bank of Turkey all expected. They will be followed on Friday by the Bank of Japan. On the economic indicators side, attention will be focused on the final estimate of inflation in May in the euro zone and on weekly applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. In Asia, markets are moving in scattered order after the Fed's announcements. In the wake of Wall Street, the Nikkei index lost 1% at the end of the session in Tokyo. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's Hang Seng Index gained 0.2 percent and the Shanghai Composite gained 0.1 percent.

U.S. Treasury bond yields stabilize Thursday morning after posting their biggest one-session gain in three months the day before, due to the surprise caused by the Fed's 2023 rate projections. At 7:30 a.m., the yield on the ten-year bond, the market benchmark, stood at 1.58%, as on Wednesday evening. Before the Fed's announcements, it had been trading below the 1.50% threshold since June 9. Yields began to climb after the Fed's decision and continued to rise after Jerome Powell said recent inflation data had been above the U.S. central bank's expectations.

The euro is moving little against the dollar on Thursday morning, after breaking the $1.20 threshold Wednesday night when the Fed said it expected two hikes in the federal funds rate in 2023. At 7:30 a.m., the single currency was trading at 1.1998 dollars, against 1.1997 Wednesday evening and 1.2127 Tuesday evening. According to NAB, the average projection of two interest rate hikes in 2023 announced by Fed members, compared to none for this year in March, was a "restrictive surprise".

Oil contracts are falling back Thursday morning. The Fed's "surprisingly restrictive" tone has led to higher yields on U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, OANDA said, adding that a rebound in the short-term greenback could be unfavorable to Nymex-listed soft light crude (WTI). At 7:20 a.m., the August Contract for North Sea Brent lost 24 cents, to $74.15 a barrel, and the July contract for WTI lost 21 cents, to $71.94 a barrel.

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