Growth, which is certainly strong, but rather uneven, will be one of the determining elements of tomorrow's election in this West African country.

Walking around the East Legon district of Accra, the capital of Ghana, is like lifting a corner of the veil on the dreams of emergence of this English-speaking West African country. New buildings are growing like mushrooms, supermarkets are competing with street stalls, and sedans are almost outnumbering Kias in the shape of dented yogurt jars.

On Banana Street, the MEST incubator welcomes young entrepreneurs with a promising profile, such as Moses Mallaghan, boss of a start-up that wants to marry rurality and technology. "The agricultural sector is very important in Ghana. The mobile phone can help it to develop and enter a formalized system that attracts investors and banks, "he explains with this consummate art of pitching which consists of presenting his company in a few minutes.

East Legon and its inhabitants summarize in their own way the take-off of this country of 30 million inhabitants. A democratic state where general elections are being held on Monday 7 December in a relatively peaceful climate. The outgoing president, Nana Akufo-Addo, who is seeking a second term against his predecessor and main opponent, John Mahama, is happy to highlight his economic record. Since coming to power in 2016, growth has reached rates of 6 to 8 percent. Until the outbreak of Covid-19, which has brutally slowed down the momentum, and which many hope to be only a snag.

The Ghanaian trajectory has, in fact, enough to make envious. For almost three decades and the advent of a multi-party system, two political parties have shared power; an exception on the continent. And the country sits in second place among West African economies, far behind the Nigerian giant but ahead of Côte d'Ivoire.

"Peaceful political environment"

It is also one of the few states in sub-Saharan Africa classified as a medium-sized human development country. The country has just overtaken South Africa as the continent's largest gold producer, in addition to being the world's second largest cocoa producer and exploiting for a decade the oil fields discovered off its coast. In 2019, Ghana even managed to rise to the most attractive destination in West Africa for foreign direct investment, surpassing a Nigeria that is six times more populous.

"It's a country with a lot of opportunities," said Darlington Munhuwani, president of insurer Allianz Ghana. Its activity, until the arrival of the coronavirus, recorded double-digit growth. In renewable energies, an area in which his company wants to develop, he sees projects pouring in from everywhere, especially from Europe. "Ghana's strength is to have both a lot of resources and a peaceful political environment," says the Zimbabwean, recalling in passing that "it is extremely rare in the region and this is what helps to attract investors".

Improving the business environment was a priority for the current government, which has been working to improve macroeconomic indicators and the banking sector. Before his election, President Nana Akufo-Addo had also multiplied bold promises to promote agriculture and industrialization in the country. These included the construction of small dams in all villages in the arid regions of the North, and especially a factory in each of the country's more than 270 administrative districts.

The government, unable to raise enough taxes in a country where 80% of employment is informal, is at the mercy of investors

For these ambitious projects, the state of play is mixed. Only a handful of industrial projects have emerged. "There are some assembly units, in the automotive industry for example, but we do not transform overnight into manufacturing power," summarizes a French businessman based in Accra and who wishes to remain anonymous.

"This team is very good at communication, when you have to talk to [the television channel specializing in economics and finance] Bloomberg for example, they are the best. But concrete translation is something else, says a European consultant. There are always power cuts, the roads are bad as soon as you leave Accra and the country imports most of what it consumes. »

Some recall that Nana Akufo-Addo took over, in 2016, the reins of a country with a failing economy . Growth was at half-mast, the currency was ultra-volatile and inflation was galloping. Many companies were closing down because of a totally chaotic energy supply. "Things were so bad that [in 2014] we had to ask for help from the International Monetary Fund," recalls John Asafu Adjaye, an economist at the Ghanaian think tank African Center for Economic Transformation. The current government has been able to stabilize and rectify the situation. »

Forced debt

The global crisis caused by the Covid-19 epidemic risks calling this progress into question. This year, growth is not expected to exceed 1%, according to the IMF. Above all, this explosion accentuates one of the structural problems of the Ghanaian economy : a forced debt.

The economic support plan drawn up to support businesses and households during the health crisis has sharply widened the deficit to more than 11% of GDP. Debt, on the other hand, now exceeds 70%. However, the government, unable to raise enough taxes in a country where 80% of employment is informal, is at the mercy of investors. In the markets, Ghana borrows at increasingly high rates.

This fiscal equation makes the goal of equitable growth even more complex. Because it remains too dependent on the price of raw materials exported on the world market. The economic boom of recent years has been accompanied by a widening of inequalities. Just leave the heart of Accra to take stock of the needs. Odododiodio is one of those poorly off neighborhoods, forgotten by the elites. The "Ghanaian miracle" has not reached this concentrate of makeshift houses and broken alleys where the sickening smell of open sewers floats.

In a courtyard, Nii Addo teaches dozens of street children, aged 5 to 16, as best he can. Only the generosity of a few locals and passing tourists allows him to hold on. He is pleased that President Nana Akufo-Addo has made high school free, a flagship measure of the past mandate, but for the rest, he says, "we are not too interested in politics because politicians are not very interested in us."

The situation is even more difficult far from the capital, in the poor and desert north of the country. With no prospects, families in northern Ghana are migrating en masse to Accra and Kumasi, the country's second largest city. "Creating jobs for these populations, especially the youngest, must be the priority of the future government," said economist John Asafu Adjaye. Today, the country is peaceful, but this situation carries with it the seeds of instability. »