Trained in the mold of the IMF, a world-renowned economist, it is not surprising that the recipes used by Alassane Ouattara to turn the country around are neoliberal. The economic results achieved from 2011 to 2019 testify to the effectiveness of these revenues.

Côte d'Ivoire in the years 2000-2010 had become a failed country with whole sections of the economy and the sovereign state (health, education, etc.) sacrificed. Throughout the years 2011-2020, the return of peace, political stability, massive state investments and the improvement of the business climate have allowed a recovery of the economy that no one disputes. With impressive growth rates since 2011, often double-digit, low inflation, sustainable debt, the Ivorian economy has once again become the leading French-speaking economy in West Africa. We speak of the second "Ivorian miracle" after the one achieved in the 1960s and 1970s under the active houphouët-Boigny governance (1).

The social impact of Ivorian growth seems to have remained low in terms of job creation and improved living conditions. Ivorians do not find, on their plates, the benefits of strong and continuous growth. The challenge for Côte d'Ivoire, whose economy remains fragile because it is indexed to the price of raw materials, is to combine economic development and social progress at the same time. The choice that has been made since 2011 has been to consolidate the economy. The social discontent that grew in 2016 and the mutinies of 2017 showed the limits of the Liberal promise. The five-year period 2020-2025 must be built on the strengthening of economic and social orientations.

The characteristics and limits of the "Ivorian miracle" under Ouattara

The second "Ivorian miracle", under the Ouattara era, is based on three characteristics: public investment, the use of debt and FDI (Foreign Direct Investment). The National Development Plan (NDP) for the period 2012-2015, extended from 2016 to 2020, endowed with 30,000 billion CFA francs, has made it possible to increase public investment from 2.5% to 6% of GDP. Low inflation and a public debt that represents, in 2018, only 40% of GDP, a surplus in the trade balance, especially due to cocoa exports, a sector supported by the State: all this makes the macroeconomic visionaries of Côte d'Ivoire, before the impact caused by the health and social crisis of Covid 19, are green. But, the limits of this second "Ivorian miracle" are obvious, they are due to the following realities: strong growth is generated by massive public investment; the social impact of growth remains insufficient: poverty reduction is not obvious to all.

Towards new economic and social orientations

Alassane Ouattara is perfectly aware that he must move towards new economic and social orientations from the beginning of his third term. It must get out of the dependence on public procurement, intensify social action, while consolidating the return of the State.

Getting out of the dependence on public procurement

If the Ivorian economy remains fragile, it is because it depends on public procurement. It is not sufficiently diversified. There is no dense network of SMEs/SMIs and local champions in the private sector capable of creating, through a processing industry, added value and jobs.

The project is taking shape in the cocoa and cashew sectors. Alassane Ouattara's third term will have to focus on private sector development by creating the conditions that allow entrepreneurs to invest and develop.

Intensifying social action

The social discontent and strikes that punctuated Alassane Ouattara's second term led the government to open a real social dialogue with employee representative organizations and civil servants' unions. An urgent need is to improve the social impact of government action and make this impact perceptible. The Government's Social Programme 2019-2020 should be extended and amplified in order to meet the expectations of Ivorians by enabling them to access basic services, by stepping up the fight against poverty and by better supporting the poorest populations.

Consolidating the return of the state

The bad side of liberalism tends to favor the trickle-down theory. This theory, which reappeared in the 1980s with the very liberal economic policies implemented by Ronald Reagan in the United States and Margaret Thatcher in the United Kingdom, claims that the richest, through consumption and investment, create jobs and wealth. This theory turns out to be wrong. Our time, with the end of the myth of "happy globalization" and the emergence of a global pandemic like Covid 19, is characterized by the return of the strategist-state and the protective state. The State is the guarantor of the general interest. Houphouët-Boigny, the socialist, had converted to liberalism. The liberal Alassane Ouattara converted to the return of the state to face the triple challenge of international economic competition, maintaining social cohesion and reconciliation.

Who can deny that Côte d'Ivoire needs, in the short time of the five-year term 2020-2025 and in the long term a forward-looking vision of history, as Wakili Alafé says in his editorial (on page 4-5 of this magazine), a strong and effective state?

Christian GAMBOTTI,

Associate of the University,

President of the think tank

Africa & Sharing-

CEO of CERAD (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur l'Afrique de Demain) -

Director of collections L'Afrique en Marche, Planète francophone -

Editorial Director

of the magazine Parliaments & African Powers.

_________

(1) We speak of an "Ivorian miracle" about the period of economic prosperity that occurred in Côte d'Ivoire in the 1960s and 1970s. The active governance of Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who reaps the proceeds from the rise in the price of raw materials, especially coffee and cocoa, has allowed the realization of this "Ivorian miracle" in many areas. At the time, Côte d'Ivoire benefited from the instability of the surrounding countries (slump in Sékou Touré's Guinea, instability in Ghana, war in Nigeria, coup d'état in Mali, etc.). Economic activity is shifting to it at a time when Western countries are experiencing strong growth.