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Prudence dominates before the ECB, the pound sterling falls again

10/12/2020
Source : zonebourse.com
Categories: Economy/Forex

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Wall Street is expected to be close to balance and European stock markets are showing a cautious rise mid-session on Thursday, as investors hesitate to take positions before the decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) and after the new extension of talks between London and Brussels on the post-Brexit period.

Futures on New York's major indexes are signaling an opening up about 0.15% for the Dow Jones and the Standard & Poor's 500 and stable for the Nasdaq.

In Paris, the CAC 40 gained 0.34% to 5,565.82 points at 11:45 GMT. In London, the FTSE 100 - up for the eighth session in a row thanks to the weakness of the pound sterling - is up 0.5% and in Frankfurt, the Dax is up 0.1%.

The EuroStoxx 50 index rose by 0.24%, the FTSEurofirst 300 by 0.11% and the Stoxx 600 by 0.09%.

The ECB is due to announce the conclusions of its monetary policy meeting at 12:45 GMT and if markets do not expect any change in key rates, they anticipate an increase and extension of asset purchases to support credit and activity.

Christine Lagarde, the president of the institution, will then explain her decisions and present new economic forecasts from 13:30 GMT.

Investors will follow at the end of the day the start in Brussels of the European Council, which must in particular try to unlock the recovery plan of 750 billion supposed to accelerate the recovery in the Union.

The outcome of the post-Brexit negotiations will have to wait until Sunday, after the extension decided on Wednesday by Boris Johnson, the British Prime Minister, and Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, in the face of persistent blockages that prevent a global compromise.

On the front of the health crisis, despite still high balance sheets and warnings issued by the authorities of several countries on the risks related to the end of the year holidays, investors seem to favor the prospect of the deployment of vaccination campaigns, the United States and Canada preparing to launch theirs in the coming days.

STOCKS TO WATCH ON WALL STREET

The US session will be animated among other things by the first listing of Airbnb, which has set its introductory price above the indicative range, yet revised upwards on Monday, thus valuing at $ 47.3 billion.

VALUES IN EUROPE

In Europe, defensive sectors are doing well in the prevailing climate of cautious optimism: the Stoxx food index gained 1.34%, the health index 0.93% and the utilities index 0.57%.

In Paris, Danone (+1.62%) and Sanofi (+1.01%) are among the leaders of the CAC 40.

On the other hand, the values of distribution (-1.33%) and those of tourism and leisure> (-1.05%) are struggling.

In the news of the results, the British specialist of the large online distribution Ocado falls by 6.15%, the slowdown in the growth of its joint venture with Marks & Spencer (-4.65%) taking precedence over the increase of its annual profit forecast.

The tour operator TUI lost 2.22% after the announcement of an annual loss of three billion euros.

rate

Eurozone benchmark bond yields are falling pending ecb decisions, the lowest since November 9 at -0.62% for the ten-year German Bund and -0.3759% for the French OAT of the same maturity.

Ten-year yields in Italy, Spain and Portugal hit all-time lows, below zero for Portuguese.

The US ten-year is also trending downwards, at 0.9262%.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

The euro is almost stable against the dollar at 1.2088 and shows an increase of 3% since the previous meeting of the ECB and especially 14% compared to its low in March, an additional difficulty for the central bank on which Christine Lagarde could speak at her press conference.

"The swelling of the PEPP could help to contain, or at least slow down, the continued appreciation of the euro, which the ECB should not look favourably on in a context where inflation remains very low," said Sebastian Paris Horvitz, strategist at LBPAM.

The pound sterling is losing ground again against the euro (-0.88%) as well as against the dollar (-0.82%), the extension of discussions between London and Brussels has not reassured foreign exchange traders.

The greenback is virtually unchanged against a basket of < benchmark currencies. DXY (-0.01%) pending the US economic indicators of the day and the consequences of the debate on fiscal stimulus in the United States.

petroleum

Oil prices are again buoyed by hopes of a recovery in demand thanks to COVID-19 vaccination campaigns.

Brent gained 1.49% to $49.59 a barrel and U.S. light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) gained 1.34% to $46.13.

The market is thus neglecting the announcement on Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of a sharp increase, of 15.2 million barrels, in crude inventories in the United States last week.

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