The slowdown in global demand, falling revenues, worsening deficits and difficult debt servicing are four breaches created by the health crisis in the West African economic and financial system. Without a strong and iconoclastic reaction from the BCEAO, the WAEMU zone is in dire straits. Traditionally risk averse, the monetary authorities this time have no choice but to be bold, at the risk of seeing a violent crisis set in, the effects of which can hardly be guessed. Since the crisis reveals what we are, let's take advantage of it to become what we must be.

In terms of health, Africa has so far resisted the covid-19 pandemic rather well. From an economic and financial point of view, however, it is a completely different story. Four breaches have damaged the fragile West African economic and financial system.

The first is structural. Locked in its colonial vocation of producer of raw materials and consumer of imported manufactured goods, Africa suffers from the global health of “commodities” without any ability to influence events. Of the four main export products of the WAEMU zone in 2018, only gold presents an interesting situation. A traditional safe haven in times of crisis, it is unsurprisingly on the rise and peaked on 08/05 at 1709 dollars, up 12.53% since January 1. Cocoa remains for the moment at a good level at 2400 dollars on the same date, down slightly by 2.56% over one year. However, there are serious risks on the development of world demand, which has already contracted slightly, and on production in the coming months. Indeed, cocoa-growing areas affected by the pandemic could not sustain the level of production. As for cotton , its prices have fallen by 19.11% since January 1, from 0.72 dollars on January 13 to 0.56 dollars on 08/05. As a result, the price to the cotton producer in Mali is set for the 2020/21 campaign at 200 FCFA per kilo for the first choice, i.e. 75 FCFA less than in 2019/20. The pompom returns to oil , of which Brent is down 53.28% since January 1, settling at 30.85 dollars on 08/05. The best illustration of the abyss in which oil is struggling is the WTI, which fell into negative territory at the end of March.

These tensions on the market for mining and agricultural raw materials mechanically lead to the second hole, the fall in own revenues, which will create the third hole which is the rapid deterioration of the twin deficits. Fewer receipts are widening the national public deficits and at the same time the deficits of the trade balances. Because the volume of foreign currencies gleaned from exports depends on the ability to finance imports, which do not weaken with the crisis. On the contrary, they even increase with, in addition, the imports of sanitary equipment decided in disaster to deal with the pandemic. We come to the fourth hole in the barrel, the demands on the debt. There was indeed a moratorium on bilateral debt, but private creditors have clearly ruled out this option. The private debt, specifically the syndicated loans and the Euro bonds therefore remain due, regardless of the current context of falling tax receipts at the local level and export receipts at the international level. How to deal with the double pressure of national expenditure and debt repayments, to be financed solely from the declining revenue budget? Faced with states let down by global demand and put under pressure by private creditors, only the BCEAO remains to save us from the disaster that is looming, via a powerful debt buyback program.