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Economic Outlook - The World Bank's Gloomy Ratings

10/06/2020
Source : Le Journal de l'Economie Sénégalaise
Categories: General Information

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According to the World Bank (Bm) growth could resume in 2021 and reach 3.1% if the pandemic recedes in the second half of this year.

3.1% economic growth. This is what sub-Saharan Africa would have in 2021 if the Covid-19 crisis "receded" in the second half of the current year.

This is reflected in the outlook presented by the World Bank which indicates that "economic activity in the region is expected to contract by 2.8% in 2020, the largest decline on record" before adding that "An even larger decline in GDP per capita is expected, which risks pushing millions of people back into extreme poverty."

The international financial institution cajoles in the wake that growth could resume in 2021 and reach 3.1%.

But, she says, if the pandemic recedes in the second half of this year, outbreaks of infection follow the same trend at the country level and growth resumes in major trading partners.

"Sub-Saharan Africa has enormous challenges to overcome in controlling the pandemic given the low capacity of health services, lack of access to basic sanitation facilities and the prevalence of informal economic activities in much of the region. gion", recalls the Bm.

Which notes that the Nigerian economy is expected to contract by 3.2% this year due to the collapse in oil prices, which account for 80% of the country's exports, about a third of bank credit and half of government revenues.

Belagrin Africa's production, she continues, is expected to decline by 7.1% this year, the strongest contraction in a century as the rigorous but necessary lockdown measures put in place have reduced economic activity.

In addition, the WB reports that economic activity in commodity-importing countries is expected to slow this year despite lower oil prices, with the number of tourists limited by restrictions on international travel.

"The GDP of countries exporting industrial raw materials is also expected to decline in 2020 as domestic disruptions are exacerbated by low oil and metal prices," said the institution led by American David Malpass.

Agricultural exporting countries will also see their economic activity collapse this year although they are relatively protected against falling commodity prices because foreign direct investment and tightening financial conditions delay investment, says finally the Bm.

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