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MARKET UPDATE-Investors between economic hopes and political doubts

20/11/2020
Source : Reuters - Les actualités en français
Categories: Economy/Forex

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* Cautious opening in sight on Wall Street
    * European indices rise
    * The US Treasury wants to recover $455 billion in credits planned for the Fed
    * In Europe, hopes of easing restrictions prevail

by Marc Angrand
    PARIS, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Wall Street is expected to be hesitant and
European stock markets are rising at mid-session on Friday, the choice of
Trump administration to deprive the Federal Reserve of hundreds of billions
of dollars supposed to support the economy worrying US investors
while the hope of a relaxation of the confinement likely to favor
the recovery benefits equities on the other side of the Atlantic.
    Futures on Major New York Indexes signal a
Opening of Wall Street down 0.2% for the Dow Jones and 0.1% on
Standard & Poor's 500 while the Nasdaq is shown to be up
0,15%
    In Paris, the CAC 40 gained 0.55% to 5,504.47 points around 11:55 GMT. Has
London, the FTSE 100 takes 0.51% and in Frankfurt, the Dax advances
by 0.43%. 
    The EuroStoxx 50 index is up 0.58%, the FTSEurofirst
300 by 0.5% and the Stoxx 600 by 0.51%.
    European markets welcome, among other things, the unexpected 1.2% rise in
UK retail sales in October but also the prospect of a
easing of restrictions in the coming weeks in several countries.

The atmosphere is different in the United States, due to the signs
acceleration of the second wave of the pandemic but especially after the announcement
by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin of a request for restitution by the
Fed of 455 billion dollars (384 billion euros) which was to be
dedicated to supporting the private sector and local authorities in the face of the
crisis.
    "This surprise decision puts the Treasury in opposition to the Reserve.
federal, which had said it would prefer an extension of this mechanism",
note UBS Global Wealth Management.
    The choice of the Treasury obscures the announcement by the Democratic leaders and
republicans of the AMEan Throne of an agreement to resume talks on
a recovery plan.
    The Stoxx 600 is currently up 1.15% over the week and the
CAC 40 a gain of 2.31%, both moving towards a third
weekly performance in a row, which would be a first since the beginning
June.
    According to weekly data from Bank of America and EPFR, the recent resurgence
risk appetite resulted in an inflow of $27 billion
on equity funds in one week, for an unprecedented total of 71.4
billions in two weeks. 
    
STOCKS TO WATCH ON WALL STREET
    
VALUES IN EUROPE 
    The prevailing optimism on the European stock markets benefits by
first in the commodities sector, including the Stoxx index
gained 1.61% and oil and gas (+1.41%), thanks to the
increase in barrel and base metal prices, and in distribution
 (+1,12%).
    German e-commerce specialist Zalando wins
1.49% after saying they expect an acceleration of its growth the year
next.
    Also noteworthy is the rise of Italian banks BPER Banca
(+4.42%) and Banco BPM (+3.77%) after Unipol's statements,
BPER's largest shareholder, in favour of a merger between the two groups.
    On the downside, the British software publisher Sage falls by 13.3%
after reporting a decline in its annual operating profit.
    
RATE 
    Steven Mnuchin's decision promotes lower yields
bond bonds: ten-year U.S. Treasuries decline
by just over one basis point to 0.8455%, continuing the trend of
last few days, which should result in a decline of about five points on the
week.
    Its German equivalent, the reference for the euro zone, amounts to 
-0.575% after a nine-day low of -0.582%; its decline can also be explained
by the political deadlock on the European recovery fund, that the discussions
between heads of state and government on Thursday did not resolve.
    
FOREIGN EXCHANGE 
    Spreads are limited in the currency market for the last session of
the week, even if the decision of the US Treasury tends to raise the
dollar. 
    The index that measures the fluctuations of the greenback against a basket of
reference shows for the moment a decline of about 0.45% over the week
after a rise of just over 0.5% last week.
    The euro, at 1.1872 dollars, meanwhile takes about 0.3% in five
Sessions.
    
PETROLEUM 
    The oil market continues to benefit from the hopes raised by the
latest news on vaccine candidates from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, and
it is also heading for its third consecutive weekly increase.
    Brent gained 0.9% to $44.60 a barrel and light crude
US (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 0.62% to $42. Both
are heading for a jump of about 4% over the whole week.
    
NO MAJOR ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE AGENDA TODAY
    
THE SITUATION ON THE MARKETS:
    (Some data may lag slightly)
    
WALL STREET                                                                                  
                                                                                               
Indices Last Var.      Var. %                                                   
                            points                                                     
 Dow Jones 29400.00 -43.00 -0.15%                                                   
                                                                                       
S&P-500 3579.75 -0.25 -0.01%                                                   
 Nasdaq-100 12006.00 +18.75 +0.16%                                                   
                                                                                       
"The Day Ahead" - Update on the next session on Wall Street                              
  The session                                                                                    
 Previous:                                                                          
 Indices Closing Var.      Var. % YTD                                            
                            points                                                     
 Dow Jones 29483.23 +44.81 +0.15% +3.31%                                         
                                                                                       
S&P 500 3581.87 +14.08 +0.39% +10.87%                                        
 Nasdaq 11904.71 +103.11 +0.87% +32.68%                                        
 Nasdaq 100 11985.43 +90.72 +0.76% +37.24%                                        
                                                                                       
MARCHES                                                                                      
 EUROPEAN                                                                             
                                                                                               
Indices Last Var.      Var. % YTD                                            
                            points                                                     
 Eurofirst 300 1504.63 +7.56 +0.50% -7.35%                                         
                                                                                       
Eurostoxx 50 3471.58 +19.61 +0.57% -7.30%                                         
                                                                                       
CAC 40 5503.33 +28.67 +0.52% -7.94%                                         
 Dax 30 13141.37 +55.21 +0.42% -0.81%                                         
 FTSE 6366.14 +31.79 +0.50% -15.60%                                        
 SMI 10501.43 +10.66 +0.10% -1.09%                                         
  Values to follow in Paris and in Europe:                                                  
                                                                                       
FOREIGN EXCHANGE                                                                                      
                  Course Watch Var.% YTD                                            
 Euro/Dlr 1.1873 1.1873 +0.00% +5.91%                                         
 Dlr/Yen 103.79 103.72 +0.07% -4.66%                                         
 Euro/Yen 123.22 123.18 +0.03% +1.04%                                         
                                                                                       
Dlr/CHF 0.9115 0.9109 +0.07% -5.82%                                         
 Euro/CHF 1.0822 1.0810 +0.11% -0.28%                                         
                                                                                       
Stg/Dlr 1.3277 1.3261 +0.12% +0.14%                                         
 Index $ 92,3110 92,2940 +0.02% -4.02%                                         
                                                                                               
RATE                                                                                         
                            Last Var.      Spread/Bund
                                                  (pts)
                                                                                               
Future Bund 175.4100 +0.0800                                                  
                                                                                       
Bund 10 years -0.5710 +0.0000                                                  
                                                                                       
Bund 2 years -0.7450 -0.0090                                                  
                                                                                       
OAT 10 years -0.3418 -0.0050 +22.92                                         
                                                                                       
Treasury 10 years 0.8455 -0.0100                                                  
                                                                                       
Treasury 2 years 0.1654 -0.0040                                                  
                                                                                               
OIL                                                                                      
 (in dollars)     Previous course Var Var. % YTD
                            t                                                          
 US light crude 42.00 41.74 +0.26 +0.62% -31.38%
                                                                                       
Brent 44.56 44.20 +0.36 +0.81% -32.52%
                                                                                               
(edited by Patrick Vignal) 
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