On January 02, 2023, the wholesale price of gaz natural in Europe has fallen to its lowest level nearly five times cheaper than in August since Russia invaded Ukraine last February. Analysts are warning of the unpredictability of the market in the coming months.

In Europe, the reference price for gaz natural is for one megawatt hour (MWh) available the following month, for the TTF contract on the Dutch market. On January 2, this price oscillated around 73 euros, the lowest since February 21, 2022. The wholesale price has thus lost nearly 50% in one month and has largely fallen back from summer peaks: in August 2022. It peaked at 342 euros. Prices of gaz began to rise before the war in Ukraine, but really exploded starting on February 24, 2022.

According to an estimate by Thierry Bros, an energy market analyst and professor at Sciences Po, the Russian giant delivered 62 billion cubic meters to Europe in 2022 compared to 138 billion in 2021. In reality, prices are falling because Europe filled its reserves to the brim last summer, then because autumn was very mild, then finally because households and businesses deliberately reduced their consumption: Europeans burned significantly fewer gaz in their boilers.