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OF Morning Newsletter

03/03/2023
Source : ORISHAS FINANCE
Categories: General Information

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Encouraged by Wall Street, European equity markets are expected to rise. The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 4,240.59 points (+0.59%), the CAC 40 at 7,284.22 points (+0.69%), the DAX 40 at 15,327.64 points (+0.15%), the FTSE 100 at 7,944.04 points (+0.37%), the SMI at 11,165.58 points (+0.99%), the AEX at 755.17 points (+0.77%), the BEL 20 at 3,856.39 points (-0.61%), the IBEX 35 at 9,327.30 points (+0.05%), the DJIA at 33,003.57 points (+1.05%), the Nasdaq at 11,462.98 points (+0.73%), the S&P 500 at 3,981.35 points (+0.76%), the Nikkei 225 at 27.93% 27,47 points (+1.56%).

With respect to exchange rates, the change since the close mentions that in New York, EUR/USD at 1.0614 (+0.16%), EUR/JPY at 144.99 (+0.04%), and USD/JPY at 136.63 (-0.11%).

After Wall Street closed higher on Thursday, European stock markets could continue to advance on Friday. After Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed), affirmed his firm support for raising interest rates in quarter-point steps, interest rate expectations are changing.

According to data from the IG broker, the CAC 40 futures contract increased by 26.2 points, or 0.4% around 7:30am. The FTSE 100 contract advanced 26.5 points, or 0.3%, while the DAX 40 contract rose 63.5 points, or 0.4%.

Investors will today be watching the publication of the PMI Services Index in the Eurozone and its main member countries, and the ISM Services Sector Index in the United States. The New York Stock Exchange ended higher yesterday. It overcame a difficult start to the session marked by new tensions on bond market rates. Investors were reassured during the session by statements by Atlanta Fed Chairman Raphael Bostic. He said he was “firmly” in favour of raising interest rates by only 25 basis points in March. According to the central banker, the Fed should be “cautious” when it comes to monetary tightening, while its rate hikes last year have not yet had their full impact on the economy.

According to him, “there are plausible reasons to think we're going to see a sharper slowdown.” The main Asian exchanges recovered on Friday. The Nikkei index closed 1.6% higher in Tokyo. At the end of the trading session, the Hang Seng on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange gained 0.9% and the Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.4%.

After crossing symbolic thresholds on Thursday, US Treasury bond yields fell slightly on Friday. Continued high inflation in Europe and the persistent dynamism of the labor market in the United States were enough for investors to push bond yields to new levels, as interest rate expectations were again readjusted. For State Street Global Advisors, “the market expects slightly higher rates for an extended period of time, which has driven up bond yields.” For its part, according to the FedWatch tool from CME Group, estimates that the probability that the Fed will raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points on March 22, to bring it to a range of 4.75% to 5%, is estimated at 73.8%. The probability that this rate will be raised by 50 basis points is estimated at 26.2%. The 2-year US Treasury rate fell by 2 basis points to 4.880% and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell 1 basis point to 4.049% around 7:20 a.m.

This Friday, the greenback is losing ground against the Japanese currency, while the euro appreciates against the dollar, but changes little against the yen. After announcing a drop in unemployment registrations last week in the United States, the dollar rose yesterday. According to Oanda, “the economy continues to do well and this should encourage Fed officials to maintain a restrictive discourse.” He also pointed to rising labor costs in the United States and core inflation at a record level in the eurozone. For him, “all eyes will be on [Fed Chairman] Jerome Powell's hearing in Congress” next week.”

Crude oil prices fell slightly this morning. According to ANZ, the prospect of a new round of monetary tightening by the various central banks counterbalancing signs of strengthening demand in Asia. Indeed, he cites the words of the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, who, according to him, the rate hikes could continue after March, as well as those of the head of the Boston Fed, Susan Collins, who indicated that further rate hikes would be necessary to control inflation. In the past two weeks, US crude futures ended at their highest level on Thursday.

The April contract for light sweet crude (WTI) traded on Nymex fell by 10 cents to $78.06 per barrel and the May contract on North Sea Brent lost 9 cents to $84.66 per barrel.

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