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OF Morning Newsletter

03/07/2023
Categories: General Information

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European equity markets expected to rise after Wall Street surges The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 4,399.09 points (+1.02%), the CAC 40 at 7,400.06 points (+1.19%), the DAX 40 at 16,147.90 points (+1.26%), the FTSE 100 at 7,531.53 points (+0.80%), the SMI at 11,280.29 points (+0.98%), the AEX at 773.94 points (+0.80%), the SMI at 11,280.29 points (+0.98%), the AEX at 773.94 points (+0.80%)), the BEL 20 at 3,543.18 points (+1.25%), the IBEX 35 at 9,593.00 points (+0.87%), the DJIA at 34,407.60 points (+0.84%), the Nasdaq at 13,787.92 points (+1.45%), the S&P 500 at 4,450.38 points (+1.23%), and the Nikkei 225 at 33.735.86 points (+1.65%

).

On the exchange rate side, the change compared to the close in New York indicates that EUR/USD opens at 1.0916 (+0.02%), EUR/JPY at 157.69 (+0.14%), and USD/JPY at 144.48 (+0.10%).

The deadline set by Casino for filing bailout offers for the troubled distributor ends this Monday. For now, Casino has received a preliminary letter of intent from Xavier Niel, Matthieu Pigasse and Moez-Alexandre Zouari regarding a strengthening of its capital by 1.1 billion euros. Of this amount, 200 million to 300 million euros would be invested directly by the three businessmen, the balance being subscribed by partners who would join their project. Daniel Kretinsky, for his part, filed an indicative offer to recapitalize Casino at the end of April. The Czech billionaire has proposed to inject, with other shareholders, up to 1.1 billion euros into the distribution group

.

European equity markets may open higher on Monday, following the rise in Asian markets and the positive performance of Wall Street last week, thanks to investor optimism that inflation will slow while the US economy remains buoyant. At 7:15am, the futures contract on the CAC 40 rose by 20.9 points, or 0.3%, according to data from the broker IG. The contract on the DAX 40 took 45 points, or 0.3%, and the one on the FTSE 100 gained 27.2

points, or 0.4%.

Investors will focus on the Eurozone manufacturing PMI indices on Monday, then on the ISM manufacturing index in the United States. The New York Stock Exchange closed higher on Friday after further signs of slowing inflation in the United States, which could limit the need for further interest rate hikes

.

The DJIA gained 4.6% in June and 3.8% year-to-date, marking its best first half since 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data, while the US economy has so far outsmarted recession forecasts. The S&P 500 rose 2.3% in June and jumped 15.9% in the first half, its best performance since 2019. The Nasdaq Composite, for its part, gained 31.7% in the first six months of the year, not seen since 1983

.

The PCE index measuring prices linked to consumer spending by American households, the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s preferred inflation indicator, rose in May by 3.8% year-on-year and 0.1% year-on-month, after rising 4.3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in April, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced.

In Asia, equity markets are headed higher on Monday. The Nikkei index on the Tokyo Stock Exchange rose 1.7% at the end of the session. The Hang Seng rose 1.6% in Hong Kong and the Shanghai Composite rose 1.1%.

U.S. Treasury yields moved little on Monday morning, after the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation indicator showed signs of slowing but also stubbornly high core inflation for May. Around 7:20am, the rate on the 10-year US Treasury bond declined 1 basis point, to 3.832%. The 2-year title winner gained 1 basis point, to 4.908%

.

The euro was stable against the dollar on Monday morning but appreciated against the yen, like the greenback. U.S. economic indicators remain frustrating for investors who have positioned themselves against the prospect of a recession, says Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. It continues to monitor possible intervention by Japan in the foreign exchange market, given the fall of the yen last week, in weighted trade data

.

Oil futures balk Monday morning, continuing to move without much of the same trend as last week. While economic growth in the United States remains strong, the rise in oil prices last month underlines a “attenuation of the pessimistic recession scenario” while the possibility of a “soft landing” is increasing, observes Manish Raj, managing director of Velandera

Energy Partners.

The physical market has been “sluggish” since the start of the year, but July should, in theory, be tense, according to RBC. “Cuts in Saudi production, the seasonal return of [more than 2 million barrels per day] of refining capacity, and leading indicators of high crude imports into China point to tensions in the physical market in July,” analysts said. Around 7:20 a.m., the September contract for North Sea Brent sold 5 cents, at $75.36 per barrel, and the August contract for soft light crude (WTI) traded on Nymex lost 4 cents, at

$70.60 per barrel.
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