The survival of companies threatened (DR) International air transport today, a massacre
appalling. All Air Transport economics specialists and analysts, all Organizations
dedicated professional bodies (ICAO, IATA, ACI/CIA, FUNUAP, etc.), all States in the world, such as
multilateral organisations, are today unanimous and terrified to observe, in total helplessness,
the extraordinary and appalling catastrophe of the economic tsunami which suddenly befell the
international aviation sector, after just a month and a half of devastation from the global COVID 19 pandemic.
There is no doubt that it is the whole world economy of air transport, the whole configuration and architecture of
this international industry which find themselves and will find themselves further turned upside down, regardless of
the size of the structures that operate there, the legal status that governs their activities, the sophistication
their organizations and their management, strategic alliances, market volumes, the flow
traffic, aircraft fleets, network structures, etc. It's total upheaval. It must be said
unvarnished, it's a whole world that capsizes, that collapses. leading to a carnage never known by the
pass. An old world is leaving us. And as always, Eternal Transcendence and Imperious Divine Law,
Life and Death, Death and Life, alternate and intertwine, punctuating the course of History, to lead societies
human beings in endless evolutions and transformations. What world of air transport will it be? At scale
international? in Africa ? in our West African sub-region? Who can say ? A certitude
however, another world will be. and all dotted, let's guess. The return of the Regal State, the only Savior.
I do not believe that, without massive, vigorous and voluntary intervention by sovereign States, any
airline in the world, public or private, cannot recover. It is impossible in this crisis,
and immediately afterwards, that with only the specific and internal dynamics of the air transport economy,
autonomous self-regulation can take place. It is constant to note that since the last war, the
internal margins in air transport have always been low, unable by themselves to generate
and to ensure alone, without external transfers, the massive capitalistic investments that the
sector. The French Prime Minister has just announced the color, affirming that his country will not hesitate to resort
to the subterfuge of the renationalisation by the French State of Air France, for its express rescue from the crisis
current. His European peers are drafting similar plans. The European Union has just raised a
severe budgetary constraint, to leave more leeway to its Member States, in order to be able to
get into debt and thus acquire more means to cope with the terrible economic crisis that is about to arise. A
any last information falls to learn that the Italian government has just renationalized Alitalia.
Everyone also remembers the American precedent, during the financial crisis of 2007-2008, which with
colossal direct injections of capital from the Federal State and the Federal Reserve Bank have enabled
to save private American banks from total collapse. Again 12 years later, President Trump,
this time again, will not hesitate to fly to the aid of private airlines by injections
massive amounts of capital. And still today, even the ultra-liberal IATA sees no other possible path
if not recourse to public interventions by States. The immediate and essential question is
above all, will it be enough to save the furniture? And what fate for Air Africa, in this
upheaval by COVID 19 As always, our continent lives out of step with the rhythm of the economy
world. The upheavals reach it in the second or third wave, and sometimes even fourth wave or
more with immeasurable havoc considering the paucity of means. transport economics
airlines in the continent is extremely low, few of its airlines can claim
the minimum size to exist in the global market. South Africa Airways (SAA) practically in a
clinical death may not rise again. Kenya Airways already very weakened by a recent restructuring
risk of falling back into the great imbalances that had weighed it down. EgyptAir, Royal Air Maroc without
important and direct intervention of their respective state will not be able to resume even half of the
level of their recent activities. Only Ethiopian Airlines, which is the 1st continental company, pride
current situation in Africa, can hope to be able to cope with the difficulty, given its history, its experiences
history, its management and its relative size. It is certainly a great challenge today for its Management
current. And this one is not won in advance. Our West African sub-region does not present a
best figure. Nigeria of 203 million inhabitants, jealously protective of its internal market and captive traffic, encloses private airlines led by risky management and
uncertain. The current crisis will wipe out many of them, and the Federal State will try to save a certain number of them. The
game is not so won. Other airlines in the French-speaking sub-region, Air Côte
d'Ivoire, the very latest Air Senegal SA, TACV, Air Burkina, ASKY will find themselves suffocated by the
mountain of debt from their recent indebtedness, which financed their last aircraft assets; they go
be weakened vis-à-vis the ECA (Export Credit Agency), vis-à-vis the lessors and the aircraft manufacturers from whom these assets
are acquired. If ASKY will follow the fate that his mentor Ethiopian Airlines will want to reserve for him, the other 3
national flags (Air Côte d'Ivoire, Air Senegal SA and Air Burkina) which see their destiny very strongly linked to
the will of their respective states will be paralyzed, if there is no injection of several tens of billions
of FCFA from their own States, in order to restart very painful restarts. The states are
essential today. I hope our people are well aware of this. One mode collapses.... Another
sketches out. Seven years have already passed, in a desperate direct appeal to two of our Heads of State
francophones in our region, Mr. Macky Sall and Mr. Alassane Ouattara, I wrote in the editorial of the bimonthly "
Transports et Tourisme International » N° 16 of February-March 2013, under the title that Lapalisse could not
deny, the following prompt, "What we cannot do alone, We can do together". ''If yesterday,
Houphouët Boigny and Léopold Sédar Senghor had achieved the feat of setting up Air Afrique, which
been able to exist for 40 years, with many multifaceted economic successes, today the circumstances
place Alassane Ouattara and Macky Sall in a privileged historical position to take up the torch
and lay the foundations of one of the regional companies, which potentially can become one of the powers in
Africa. Like Royal Air Maroc and Egyptair in North Africa, Ethiopian Airlines and
Kenyan Airways in the East or South African Airlines in the South of the Continent. In doing so, no doubt, they
will involve all the other countries of the UEMOA and ECOWAS zone which live in the same community
of fate'. Later I added that '' this is surely the way. It takes political will, determination
officials at the highest level and cooperation between our States. I believe Macky Sall and
Alassane Ouattara can carry this great regional initiative without firing a shot. Both countries have
means''. Alas! Alas! 3 times Alas! This call had no response. Time has flown. Both countries have
walked alone, each on his own, venturing into national pavilions that have difficulty in truly
deploy, limited and cloistered as they are in cramped markets, which they fiercely dispute among themselves
and with others. Worse, if we had to have fun adding up the cumulative deficits and losses of the activity of these 2
airlines these 7 years during, it is not less than 250 billion of our CFA francs that it
should be recorded as retained earnings in their respective balance sheet accounts. None of these companies
airlines has never made any money in all this time. And still far ahead, they won't win any.
It is our States that support them at arm's length. An old world is collapsing. another is taking shape. he is in
become.uncertain and vague, which will give birth to new paradigms. COVID 19 invites us to learn from
our past, to have to question ourselves, about our successes and our failures, especially our failures, to
to be able to understand and build another world, freer, more empathetic and more prosperous. Air Senegal and Air
unified Côte d'Ivoire is a fleet of more than twenty aircraft grouped together, a regional network and
better structured international structure, and more real credibility and economic rationality. All it takes is willpower
Politics. States, the only saviors. Mr. Tahir NDIAYE Director General - Aeronautical School
(ESA) Former Deputy Regional Director IATA CWA Former Regional Director Galileo/Travelport CWA