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Foreign exchange market: the “Trump strategy” boosts major currencies

18/10/2024
Categories: Economy/Forex

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The dollar headed for its third straight weekly rise on Friday, helped by a dovish European Central Bank and solid U.S. data that pushes back expectations about how quickly U.S. rates may fall, especially if Donald Trump wins the presidency.

The greenback cut some of its gains to 149.93 yen on Friday. Data released on Thursday showed that retail sales growth in the United States was above expectations and that the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points

.

In other currencies, the euro is down almost 1% since the start of the week, has fallen below its 200-day moving average and, at $1.0837 in Asian trading, is close to a 2 and a half month low.

On a sliding basis, the dollar's 3.1% rise on the euro over three weeks was the biggest rise since mid-2022, and it hit the strong side of 150 yen for the first time since early August.

The New Zealand dollar was also forecast to fall by 0.75% for the week and was little changed at $0.6063 during the Asian session.

The Australian dollar extended gains on Friday after a solid jobs report, while benefiting from a helping hand from China, where stocks rose thanks to the launch of support measures and slightly stronger economic growth than expected.

Aussie gained 0.2% to $0.6708, climbing back above a key level of 67 cents.

The index gained 0.4% overnight, even against a strong dollar, as good national employment numbers meant little chance of a fall in rates at the end of the year.

The New Zealand dollar rose 0.1% to $0.6064, but was down 0.7% for the week.

The Chinese yuan strengthened against the US dollar on Friday after the country's central bank launched two financing plans to help jump-start the stock market.

The offshore yuan traded at 7.1292 yuan to the dollar, up about 0.11% in Asian trade.

The yuan spot opened at 7.1196 per dollar and traded 38 pips more firmly than the previous session closed at 7.1197 at 03:24 GMT.

The Indian rupee is expected to open in near stagnation on Friday, amid a rise in the dollar index and American rates and hopes of the country's central bank intervening in favor of the local currency. The one-month undeliverable futures contract indicates that the rupee will open barely changed against the US dollar, up from 84.0675 in the previous session. The rupee is only a few centimeters away from its all-time low of 84.0750

reached on Monday.

The pound rose by 0.5% after data showed that consumer spending in the United Kingdom was surprisingly strong last month, reassuring about the strength of the economy, although the currency was still on track for its third weekly decline.

Sterling, which hit a high of $1.307 earlier in the day, was up 0.2% to $1.3037. Versus the euro, the pound was up 0.1% to 86.615

pence.
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