The Fitch Ratings rating agency has confirmed the Republic of Congo's long-term issuer default rating in foreign currencies (IDR) to “CCC+”.

The notes reflect Congo's recent history of defaults, high public debt and financing needs, low governance indicators, low GDP per capita, low GDP per capita, high dependence on oil, and poor management of public finances. These credit weaknesses are offset by reduced, although still high, financing needs after the extension of local debt maturities in October 2024 and a decrease in external amortization over the period 2025-2026. Congo's ratings also reflect our expectations of fiscal and external surpluses supported by a continued favourable oil price environment and continued engagement with the IMF.

Fitch forecasts that Congo's budget surplus will average 1.4% of GDP over the period 2025-2026, reflecting a further drop in oil revenues and stable investment spending. Fitch estimates that Congo's external amortization fell to 4.5% of GDP in 2024 and expects them to fall further to 2.8% by 2026 (2023:6.7%), reflecting a reduction in debt service to oil traders