La dernière édition du rapport The World Bank's “Commodity Markets Outlook” mentions that global fertilizer prices rose by 11% in the first quarter of 2025 year-on-year.

The World Bank report reveals that the prices of urea (nitrogen fertilizer) have increased by 20% while the prices of the most common phosphate fertilizer (Diammonium Phosphate-DAP) have increased by 5% compared to the&rsquoo ; last year. For its part, potassium chloride (MOP) saw its price increase by 8%. According to reports, this trend is primarily a consequence of strong demand from markets such as Brazil and India, combined with production cuts and export restrictions. In the case of urea, supply has particularly weakened in Egypt where the fall in natural gas supplies has affected the industry while supplies are reduced on the global market with China's decision to cut shipments by more than 90% in 2024

The World Bank notes that global fertilizer prices are expected to rise by 7% in 2025, due to stronger demand before stabilizing in 2026. According to the financial institution, “prices are expected to remain above 2015-2019 levels due to a combination of factors: sustained demand, high input costs (especially natural gas), and continued export restrictions, especially from China. A risk of an increase is the increase in input costs, while a resumption of Chinese exports could lower prices.”

Cette année, les urea prices are expected to increase by 15% compared to 2024 reaching $390 per ton before falling by 4% in 2026 with the entry into service of new production capacities in East Asia and the Middle East. For their part, DAP rates could increase by 6% to $600 in 2025 before falling by 8% in 2026