2019 will have been economically ultra-turbulent for Africa, more than ever at the heart of a war
interests between world powers. A pivotal year, 2020 ushers in a decade full of challenges and
decisive for the future of the Continent. At its end, it will be time to take stock of the development objectives
sustainability (SDG). But unlike recent historical periods of great economic battle around
of Africa, that of the next ten years will take place in a context of increasing power of
certain African economies, both regionally and internationally. La Tribune Afrique throws some
lines of analysis.
Suspense? Maybe not on this point. The decade that opens in 2020 announces the "sounds" of a war
economy around Africa intensified by the convergence of appetites at all costs of the powers
world and reshaped by the ambition of emergence of the States of the Continent. Embarked on a race for
relay of growth, the West is rushing towards Africa which is itself racing towards its development objectives
sustainability (SDG). Deadline: 2030. And the ultra-dynamic economic news that prevailed around the 54 countries
in 2019 speaks volumes about the refinement of strategies by the various partners. “Reshuffling of the cards” “
Africa remains in a great pattern of predation, a field of confrontation between powers that do not
may only increase in the future. This economic war is not only commercial. It is also a
war of ideas, with regard to the way in which African societies are in the process of reclaiming their
story. Also, the breakthrough of certain African economic locomotives will require a reshuffling of the cards
“, analyzes in an interview with La Tribune Afrique Valérie Houphouët-Boigny, expert in intelligence
economic and head of the Africa Club of the School of Economic Warfare (EGE) in Paris. “Vladimir
Putin is forcing his way into Africa, which is bad news for American interests,” headlines
Fred Kempe, president of the think tank Atlantic Council, in a column published by Cnbc on June 15, 2019. He
alerted Washington to the need to accelerate the implementation of its African strategy, while with its
With 2.4 billion inhabitants in 2050, the Continent is emerging as the market of tomorrow. The first peak
Russia-Africa in Sochi in October, which brought together some forty African heads of state, confirmed the
great Russian ambitions, particularly in geological exploration, mining, energy,
hydrocarbons, but also High Tech. Kremlin's goal: double trade revenue by 2024
in Africa that crossed the $20 million mark in 2018. Analysts expect
for Russia to go further, probably by taking direct stakes in companies.
Stampede at the gates The formalization, on October 1, 2019, of the Development Finance Corporation
United States International (DFC) is America's defensive response to ushering in a new era of
their presence in Africa. This independent agency boosted by 60 billion dollars signed, on the sidelines of
the Africa Investment Forum in November 2019 in Johannesburg, a partnership with the African Bank of
(AfDB) for investments totaling $5 billion, including $3 billion mobilized
from the private sector. Infrastructure, financial services, energy and agriculture are the
priority areas. CEO Adam Boehler has already traveled to the south, east and north of the Continent and will
probably in the West as soon as 2020. The objective for Washington is above all to compete with China which,
presented by researchers as the world's leading power by 2030, is rooted in Africa and
continues to nurture great ambitions there. A Chinese presence that doesn't just bother the Americans. The
France only belatedly realized its magnitude, particularly in French-speaking countries where, despite its
historical ties, France has fallen considerably in economic terms. The soft power of Paris
Now fully committed to winning back markets, Paris -through initiatives such as Ambition Africa or
the Africa-France summit, which has become very economical, is trying to galvanize its SMEs around the opportunities
business on the Continent. His unpopularity exacerbated recently by the debate on the CFA franc, the president
Emmanuel Macron played the soft power card on December 21 in Côte d'Ivoire, announcing the reform of
this currency and the launch in 2020 of the Eco - the single currency of ECOWAS. According to analysts,
the Elysée is trying to restore its image at a time when other European powers enjoy better press. Moreover, several analysts impute the firm steps of Germany to the French retreat. In
addition to its annual Compact with Africa conference, Berlin stepped on the accelerator in October 2019 with
the launch of the AfricaGrow fund endowed with 170 million euros and aimed at supporting investment funds
and African venture capital, with a view to financing 150 SMEs and creating 25,000 jobs by 2030.
The UK, meanwhile, has strong ambitions on the Continent to secure its planned post-Brexit
on January 31, 2020. Not to mention Japan and the Gulf countries, which are also gradually advancing
their pawns. In addition to the sectors openly targeted by Russia and the United States, "battles are looming
after in education, construction, maritime transport, the pharmaceutical industry, mobile banking,
insurance, agriculture and defence, to name just a few aspects boosted by demographics, the
purchasing power and insecurity. Alongside the air, the sea and the land, cyberspace will become a field of war
unheard-of violence", prognosticates Guy Gweth, president of the African Monitoring and Intelligence Center
economy (CAVIE), interviewed by La Tribune Afrique. When do civil societies influence business?
On the ground, strategies change. Very few powers still remain on the sole entry through the elite
policy as it has been historically. First the Chinese and now the Americans are trying to
seduce Africans. United States Ambassador to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Mike
Hammer, for example, has been noted for having given himself a local nickname, "Nzita", which he inserts
proudly to his identity on social networks. He eats local food and likes to "promote" it.
". “China has redistributed the cards in Africa,” insists strategy expert Stéphanie Gateau-Magy,
in an interview with LTA, pointing out that the very elite-oriented strategies and initiatives of yesteryear do not
no longer work. Valérie Houphouët-Boigny for her part warns that African civil societies now
carried out by great intellectuals are no longer susceptible to attempts at seduction. “There is this duality
between political elites and African civil societies that the powers that want to cooperate economically
with Africa can no longer be elucidated, explains the expert. The facts show it. About the Summit
In Sochi, Russian support for African activists received more media coverage than formal meetings. The debate on the
Fcfa, on which Mr. Macron spoke out historically, does not come from the political elites,
but rather from civil society. It is clear that a choice of interlocutors is imposed on the powers. Very
Clearly, African civil society is showing its refusal to be a victim of economic war”. the ascent
of African strategist states is a game-changer If Africa is now used to global greed, the
However, the context of economic war over the decade 2020-2030 promises to be completely different. In
Indeed, the Continent is taking positions so as not only to be its object, but also a major actor. Of
more and more States are demonstrating this through their ambitions. This is particularly the case of Morocco, which
Western investors now cite among their competitors on the Continent. Thanks to its wealthy
businessmen and its economic policy in the West African sub-region, Nigeria - the most
populous and Africa's largest oil tanker- has also carved out the profile of a wise leader. Rwanda, meanwhile
star of the past decade, has become a benchmark in business and a model of progress
economic, even surpassing many Western economies in the very famous Doing
Business. Land of gold for its economic dynamism, its average growth of 9.9% over the ten
recent years (as we have seen more in the West for a long time already), its market of 100
million inhabitants, its privatization strategy which should materialize during this decade and its
dynamic airline now fifth in the world in terms of air services, Ethiopia
thinks big and insists on the “hydro-war” against Egypt. The latter, in turn, set his sights on the
south of the Sahara. Even the African private sectors have become more and more famous in recent years with the
conquest of world markets through the establishment/acquisition of companies in the West, the development
standard offers for these markets... "Africa is at a crossroads and some States have understood this,
especially those who attach great importance to the notion of Nation. We are in a period
unprecedented where the notion of ''power'' seems accessible to African States. A power attacks, leads
offensives, a power fights on files and has a strategic vision. A country like Morocco
Strictly deploys economic power strategies. Ethiopia attacking Egypt on the issue
of the strategic water/energy resource... For us, these are strong signals of a reshuffling of the cards",
insists the head of the Africa Club of the EGE Paris. “Over the next decade, states
will increasingly be strategic states for power strategies”. Valerie
Houphouët-Boigny. The Zlecaf, a way to “sanctuarize” the markets Another decisive element of the
economic war reshaping in Africa is none other than the Continental Free Trade Area
(Zlecaf) whose operationalization is scheduled for July 2020. Flagship project of the African Union (AU) which should
serve as a foundation for the achievement of Agenda 2063, the Zlecaf -which will be the largest area
trader in the world- will propel, according to official projections, intra-African trade to 25% of the
trade of the Continent by 2023, against more than 17% in 2018. Eventually, the regional GDP should cross the
threshold of 3,000 billion dollars and allow the creation of 300,000 direct jobs and more than 2 million
indirect jobs. “Faced with what is looming, Africans have no choice but to act in close ranks to
sanctuarize their domestic market and set out to conquer foreign markets. That's the whole meaning of a
common African economic intelligence policy backed by the architecture designed by the ZLECA",
says Guy Gweth. While the project still raises questions, especially since it will come into force
in the context of the renewal of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA) between the European Union
European Union (EU) with the countries of the Continent, the implementation of the Zlecaf, if it actually intervenes
in the medium term, will be closely monitored. The decade of the African ''miracle''? In any case, the
The real question now lies in the probability for Africa to come out on top of the war that the great powers are waging over its commercial territories, at a time when the countries of the Continent
are also looking for his collective breakthrough. In this lies the suspense aroused by the decade
2020-2030. For the experts, “nothing is written in advance”. "Doesn't an Arab proverb say that covetousness
enslave? “Asks the president of CAVIE. “When we carefully analyze the quantum leaps
made by Africans in the areas of integration, entrepreneurship and innovation, the latter
years, continues the expert, it is hoped that Africa will be able to benefit from those who covet it.
But it is the responsibility of the State-strategist, helped in this by national champions and a society
sensitized civil society, to lay the foundations for a market that monitors and chooses its priority sectors, informs and
reassures the creators of wealth, attracts and retains the best, whether they are nationals or foreigners.
Because the ultimate goal is to generate sustainable growth in our territories and distribute it with the
maximum equity, justice and security in order to guarantee peace and well-being. They are our best
bulwarks in the face of economic war”.