Less than 48 hours after notification by the Paris Club* to African States of the suspension of debt repayments due to public creditors for 6 months, from June to December 2020, the sanctions of market prescribers have fallen.

The rating agency Moody's has indeed, in a series of decisions taken on June 12, 2020, placed in "downward revision" the Ba3 ratings in foreign and local currencies of Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal, the first two economies of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), pending "clear clarifications" on their commitments to respect the repayment schedule of private debts.

 Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire have however declared in turn, in the wake of the moratorium concluded two days ago, their willingness to respect their commitments vis-à-vis private creditors, subscribers of Eurobonds traded on the international market with fatally high spreads. Given the uncertainties related to the coronavirus and expectations about the difficulties of African states to be able to meet their deadlines. However, Moody's notes, the G20's call for private sector creditors to participate in this initiative "on comparable terms" increases the risk of default on private debt.

Clearly, the "downward revision" of the ratings of the two countries, added to the surveillance on the Congo whose rating, Caa2, is highly speculative, degrade the signature of Africa. In the case of Congo, for example, "the extent of the liquidity relief granted by bilateral creditors is small compared to the government's significant borrowing needs," notes Moody's, which suddenly, with its revision, lower all the WAEMU and CEMAC zones (since Chad, Cameroon and Congo are candidates for the moratorium) by a notch in the already heavy perception that the international financial market has of them.

This means concretely that any private investor who commits to subscribe to an African debt security would ask for more pledges in the form of an interest rate high enough to pay for the famous "Africa risk". Benin's Minister of Economy and Finance, Romuald Wadagni, was right, perhaps too soon: "the request for cancellation or even a moratorium necessarily leads to market speculation on future difficulties of applicants to honor their deadlines", hammered the silversmith towards and converse the opinions of classics like Tidjane Thiam, at the head of a quartet engaged by the African Union and who is slow to present the result of his missions.

Today, more than ever, Africa must technically speak with one voice with the private creditors of the London Club*, made up of large investors but especially small London funds led by managers whose managerial life expectancy is suspended from the returns of their funds.

As of June 13, since the G20's mid-April decision to suspend debt service for the poorest countries to help them cope with the coronavirus crisis, 30 eligible countries have formally requested a moratorium from the Paris Club. About 12 have won their case and must, in our opinion, before signing, make the simple balance between the flows of repayments of the public debt between June and December 2021 and the repayments of debts to the private.

Sometimes, the cancellation negotiated with the only public party (Paris Club) without the London Club costs even more if all the related impacts are assessed. Under current conditions, the Paris Club moratorium risks having a relative impact without commitment from private creditors and increasing the costs of recovery.