Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their OPEC+ allies began their inter-ministerial summit behind closed doors on Thursday, with the heavy burden of deciding on the very short-term future of their policy of cutting oil production.

Due to the health crisis, this meeting is held by videoconference, after three days of formal, and especially informal, discussions between the members of the cartel.

Already postponed by two days - from Tuesday to Thursday - the summit finally began almost two hours after the time initially scheduled, shortly before 15:00 GMT (16:00 in Paris), a source of the organization told AFP.

"Will OPEC+ reach an agreement today?" asked Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank, earlier in the day.

To this question, many observers and market participants answered Thursday in the affirmative, evoking a possible postponement of the current cuts by one month and then a gradual easing from February to May, which would avoid the sudden return to the market of nearly 2 million barrels per day on January 1 as planned in the agreement in force.

The alliance of producers is imposing drastic restrictions on its production of black gold in order to adapt it to a demand that has fallen with the Covid-19 pandemic, following progressive levels stopped after tough negotiations in April 2020.

This effort, painful for everyone's finances, played its part in reversing the dizzying fall in crude oil prices, the American reference having even ventured into negative territory for a moment in the spring, a first in history.

Since then, a second wave of Covid-19 has dashed hopes for a rapid, "V-shaped" recovery in global growth and movements of goods and people consuming black gold.

This situation pushes most producers, led by Saudi Energy Minister and cartel leader Abdel Aziz bin Salman, to extend the current cutting effort by around 7.7 million barrels a day.

- Prize in convalescence -

This was what the market expected, and for many players the cycle of meetings at the beginning of the week was only a formality to validate three or six months of extension.

But the recent rise in prices - of the order of 25% in November alone for WTI and North Sea Brent , the best month since May - driven by the hope of massive vaccination campaigns against Covid-19, The prospect of a return to "normal" oil demand is prompting some countries to reassess the need for such a sacrifice.

The thorny subject of compliance with quotas by each member also seems to have come back on the table, with bad students being asked to observe strict compensation before considering any further action.

The cartel must also take into account production levels in the ranks of three of its quota-exempt members, some of whom are set to grow.

This is the case of Libya, whose production almost reduced to zero in 2020 as a result of an internal conflict, has soared since October. It has now exceeded one million barrels per day, according to the Libyan National Oil Company (NOC).

In the medium term, a more flexible US policy towards Iran, also not concerned by quotas, after the election of Democratic candidate Joe Biden, could bring back to the market hundreds of thousands of barrels a day that it will have difficulty absorbing as it stands.

After trading slightly lower in the European session, the two benchmark prices - North Sea Brent and US WTI - were stable shortly after the start of the meeting, trading respectively 48.36 and 45.30 dollars per barrel around 15:10 GMT (16:10 in Paris).

bp/anb/etr

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