The American rating agency Moody's, in a report published on December 9, 2019, lowered its outlook on the banking sector in Africa to "negative". According to the institution's analysts, this situation is mainly due to a deterioration in the banking operating environment in the region, which will have the effect of accentuating the pressure on the quality of the assets and the profitability of these banks. .

Moody's forecasts that the overall growth of gross domestic product in Africa will be 4.1%, far from the average historical levels of 6% that we have had in recent years. In this context, governments will face difficulties in honoring their commitments to repay loans or pay suppliers.

In both cases, the banks will find themselves with receivables to be provisioned, either directly on loans granted to governments, or because of the exposure they have on customers who are state suppliers. The pessimism displayed by Moody's remains measured, however. The agency recognizes that despite this, most rated African banks will maintain high levels of capital, while the capacity to finance and manage short-term local currency commitments will remain strong in most countries.

Its experts also believe that better access to currencies such as the US dollar and stricter banking regulatory requirements will help banks withstand the pressure of their foreign currency commitments.

The situation is not the same everywhere. Banks in South Africa, Nigeria, Tunisia and Angola will face greater challenges, while banks in Egypt, Morocco, Mauritius and Kenya will show greater resilience.

Remember that Moody's rates nearly 47 banks and banking groups in Africa, among the largest. In particular, its portfolio includes the three Moroccan banking institutions expanding in sub-Saharan Africa, but also the four largest banks in South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria and Egypt. There are also two major financial institutions based in Togo and listed on the BRVM, namely: Ecobank Transnational Incorporated and Oragroup.