Oil prices stabilized two weeks ago, since the surprise announcement by OPEC + of the reduction of its production quotas (1.1 million barrels per day from May, 1.6 million in July).

Brent is trading around 85 dollars a barrel, well above its mid-March low of 72 dollars, but still far from the forecasts of some analysts such as Goldman Sachs, who send it above 100 dollars. Indeed, OPEC + published a report last week in which it explains that there is a risk of a mismatch between supply and demand in the coming months. The report notes that “trade inventories in OECD countries have recovered in recent months and the situation is less tense than at the same time a year ago.” The document highlights the existence of new macroeconomic risks. According to the same report, “it should be noted that potential challenges to global economic development include high inflation, monetary tightening, the stability of financial markets, and high levels of sovereign, corporate and private debt

Also, several countries have increased their production in recent months. Therefore, the declines in OPEC +, and Saudi Arabia in particular, could be more painless than expected on the markets: the United States has increased its production by nearly a million barrels per day over the past year to avoid a surge in prices.