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OF Morning Report

02/09/2024
Categories: General Information

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European equity markets expected in scattered order before Eurozone PMIs and in the absence of Wall Street. However, the Eurostoxx 50 opens at 4,957.98 points (-0.17%), the CAC 40 at 7,630.95 points (-0.13%), the DAX 40 at 18,906.92 points (-0.03%), the FTSE 100 at 8,376.63 points (-0.17%), the FTSE 100 at 8,376.63 points (-0.17%), the SMI at 12,436.59 points (+0.15%), the AEX opens at 953 points (-0.03%), the FTSE 100 at 8,376.63 points (-0.17%), the FTSE 100 at 8,376.63 points (-0.04%), the SMI at 12,436.59 points (+0.15%), the AEX opens at 932. 18.66 points (-0.55%), the BEL 20 at 4,184.40 points (+0.23%), the IBEX 35 at 11,401.90 points (+0.38%), the DJIA at 41,563.08 points (+0.55%), the Nasdaq at 4,184.40 points (+0.55%), the Nasdaq at 17,713.62 points (+1.13%), the S&P 500 at 5,648.40 points (+1.01%) and the Nikkei 225 to 38,663.41 points (

+0.04%).

On the exchange rate side, the change from the close in New York indicates that EUR/USD opened at 1.1050 (-0.01%), EUR/JPY at 161.21 (-0.21%), and USD/JPY at 145.91 (-0.19%).

Political negotiations for the appointment of a new prime minister continue. According to press sources, the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, is receiving Bernard Cazeneuve, Xavier Bertrand, François Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy on Monday, as part of consultations to find a personality for Matignon who is not immediately censored by a majority of deputies. The Head of State could make this nomination on Tuesday.

On the macroeconomic side, the manufacturing PMI index for the month of August will be released at 9:50am.

European equity index futures are trading in scattered order on Monday morning, before the publication of the Eurozone manufacturing PMIs and while markets remain closed in the United States for Labor Day. At around 7:40am, the CAC 40 futures contract lost 1.1 points, according to data from broker IG. The one on the DAX 40 gained 24.5 points, or 0.1%, and the one on the FTSE 100 increased by 31.2

points, or 0.4%.

Ahead of the publication of the monthly report on non-agricultural employment in the United States on Friday, attention will be drawn on Monday by the Eurozone manufacturing PMIs indexes.

The New York Stock Exchange ended higher on Friday, with the Dow setting a fourth record in the past week, after the announcement of slightly lower-than-expected inflation in July in the United States. American stock market indexes rose throughout August, driven by a series of encouraging economic indicators

.

For now, the economy is doing well, “but the trend is going in the wrong direction,” said Sonu Varghese, a global strategist at Carson Group, a financial advisory firm.

In Asia, the Nikkei 225 was at breakeven at the end of the session in Tokyo, while the Hang Seng Index lost 1.8% in Hong Kong and the Shanghai Composite lost 1.8% in Hong Kong and the Shanghai Composite lost 0.7%.

A private indicator of manufacturing activity in China rebounded in August, after a brief contraction in July, which contrasts with the official indicator, which fell to its lowest level in six months, and paints a mixed picture of the health of the world's second-largest economy.

The manufacturing PMI released on Monday by Caixin and S&P Global rose to 50.4 in August, from 49.8 in July. Above 50, the index signals a growth in activity. This indicator contrasts with the country's official manufacturing PMI, released on Saturday, which showed a decline in manufacturing activity in China for the fourth consecutive month. It fell to 49.1 in August, its lowest level in six months, from 49.4 in July. Below 50, the index indicates a contraction in activity.

Investors are increasingly cautious about very long-term bonds, preferring short- and medium-term bonds that offer better risk-adjusted returns, says Saxo.

“The lack of demand from the main market for ultra-long-term bonds, despite the current liquidity in the secondary market, could signal future liquidity problems, leading to greater hesitation in both primary and secondary markets,” said Althea Spinozzi, head of fixed income at Saxo.

The dollar rose slightly against the euro on Monday morning, but fell against the yen. The greenback may struggle to recover, even if the market reduces expectations of lower Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rates, due to the prospect of a soft landing for the American economy, Capital Economics believes

.

The dollar may gain some ground against most European currencies in the short term, but it will likely continue to weaken against Asian currencies as the Fed is expected to start cutting rates in September.

Oil futures fell on Monday morning, as the market assesses the production plan of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+). Several members of the cartel said last week that they planned to increase oil production starting in October, ANZ comments. At 7:45am, the November contract on Brent traded in London fell by 73 cents, to 76.37 dollars per barrel, while the October contract on light sweet crude (WTI) listed on the Nymex lost 65 cents, to

73.07 dollars per barrel.
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