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OF Morning Brief

14/01/2025
Source : ORISHAS FINANCE
Categories: General Information

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European stock exchanges are expected to open slightly higher on Tuesday, pending new data on producer prices in the United States.

The Banque de France indicated on Monday evening that it expected zero growth in the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the third quarter.
The Renault group announced on Tuesday an alliance between its electrical subsidiary Mobilize and Free to X, a subsidiary of the company Autostrade per l'Italia specialized in fast charging. Mobilize will acquire a “significant” stake in Free to X in order to develop fast charging infrastructures in Italy. The amount of the transaction was not disclosed. At around 7:45am, the CAC 40 futures contract grew by 0.9%, according to data from

broker IG.

This Tuesday, Prime Minister François Bayrou will deliver his general policy speech to Parliament. This speech will not be followed by a vote of confidence. The new government is still in negotiations to reach an uncensored agreement on a 2025 budget bill, against the background of a major disagreement over the repeal of the latest pension reform. On the Senate side, the elected officials will also discuss this Tuesday whether or not to extend the system allowing food shopping with meal vouchers. The National Assembly has opted for an extension until the end of 2026, while some senators are campaigning for a stop at the end of 2025.


European equity markets are expected to open higher on Tuesday before the publication of the US producer price index, while operators expect little or no easing of the monetary policy of the American Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025.
Around 7:45am, the DAX 40 futures contract grew by 0.5% and the FTSE 100 futures contract rose 0.1%, according to data from broker IG. The continued strength of the American economy is accompanied by above-target inflation, and markets have significantly reduced their expectations of reducing Fed rates this year

.

BofA Securities strategists say that “all eyes are on the producer and consumer price indexes this week, as the market is no longer focused on growth but on inflation.” According to analysts at BofA Securities, “while higher numbers could put additional pressure on equities, we believe that [last week's employment report] explosive increases the degree of inflation that equity markets can bear, especially after last week's selling move

.”

The New York Stock Exchange ended in scattered order on Monday, as tech stocks continued to take profits amid rising bond yields. The Dow Jones Index (DJIA) rose 0.9% to 42,297.12 points while the expanded S&P 500 index rose 0.2% to 5,836.22 points after trading in the red for most of the session. The Nasdaq index, rich in technology stocks, ended up down 0.4% to 19,088.10 points

.

Asian equity markets were trading in a mixed manner on Tuesday. The Shanghai Composite gained 2.4% at the end of the session and the Hang Seng gained 1.8% on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, while the Nikkei closed down 1.8% on the Tokyo Stock Exchange for its first session of the week.

This morning, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell. Goldman Sachs reports that “returns have already exceeded the levels seen in previous non-receptionist cycles.” For the bank, “given the extent of the revaluation already observed, we believe that the situation is leaning towards a slight fall in bond yields from now on.” According to the bank, this view is reinforced by the fact that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could make more cuts to its interest rates than the market expects, as the American central bank seeks to find the neutral level for its rates.
At around 7:45am on Tuesday, the 10-year US Treasury bond rate lost 2 basis points (0.02 percentage points), to 4.77%. That of the two-year stock fell by 1 basis point, to 4.39%

.

The euro was almost unchanged this morning against the dollar and the yen, and the greenback rose slightly against the Japanese currency. The dollar continued to gain some ground on Monday as investors closely monitor the trajectory of key rates at major central banks. On Tuesday, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Ryozo Himino, said in particular that the Bank of Japan would discuss the possibility of raising rates at its January meeting but he did not mention the probability that it would make the decision to raise them.
At around 7:45am, the euro was stable at 1.0250 dollars, while the greenback gained 0.1%,

at 157.64 yen.

This morning, oil fell, losing some of the ground gained as a result of sanctions imposed by the United States on the Russian energy sector. Natasha Kaneva, a strategist at J.P. Morgan said that “the assumption underlying our analysis remains that [Donald] Trump, like [Joe] Biden, would prefer to keep oil prices low and avoid potential inflation catalysts.” The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies in OPEC+ could easily increase production in order to make up the difference.
Around 7:50 a.m., the March contract for North Sea Brent traded in London lost 61 cents, or 0.8%, to $80.40 per barrel. The February contract for light sweet crude (WTI) listed on Nymex sold 51 cents, or 0.7%, to $78.31

per barrel.
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