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OF Morning Report

08/11/2022
Categories: General Information

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Before the end of the “midterms” in the US, European equity markets should hesitate. The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 3,708.80 points (+0.55%), the CAC 40 at 6,416.61 points (0.00%), the DAX 40 at 13,533.52 points (+0.55%), the FTSE 100 at 7,299.99 points (-0.48%), the SMI at 10,750.39 points (-0.35%), the AEX at 676.06 points (+0.62%). 2%), the BEL 20 at 3,616.18 points (+0.38%), the IBEX 35 at 7,962.30 points (+0.25%), the DJIA at 32,827.00 points (+1.31%), the Nasdaq at 10,564.52 points (+0.85%), the S&P 500 at 3,806.80 points (+0.96%) and the Nikkei 225 at 27,872.11 points (+1.25%).

In terms of exchange rates, the change from the close mentions that in New York, EUR/USD is at 1,0003 (-0.19%), EUR/JPY at 146.79 (-0.09%) and USD/JPY at 146.78 (+0.11%).

While Orpea, Rubis and Eurazeo present their quarterly sales figures, Carrefour and Renault are organizing investor days on Tuesday. After publishing lower sales in the third quarter, Altarea was more cautious last night regarding its FFO (“Funds From Operations”) target for 2022. Funds From Operations corresponds to net income excluding changes in value, calculated expenses, transaction costs and deferred tax changes. In reality, Altarea now expects a “growing” FFO in 2022, “subject to no further deterioration of the macroeconomic, geopolitical or health context.” He predicted a “significant increase in FFO, subject to no deterioration in the context” at the end of July.

According to an announcement by Air France-KLM, he prepaid 1 billion euros of the amount of the state-guaranteed loan (PGE) he took out in 2020, in the midst of the health crisis. The group thus indicated in a press release: “Air France-KLM has concluded an agreement with the French State and the syndicate of nine banks participating in the PGE to prepay one billion euros out of the 3.5 billion euros in assets outstanding.”

At the opening, as investors await a new round of corporate results in Europe and the United States, as well as mid-term elections across the Atlantic, European equity markets are expected to change little on Tuesday.

The FTSE 100 contract fell by 32 points, or 0.4%, while the DAX 40 contract gained 13 points, or 0.1%. According to data from the IG Markets broker, the CAC 40 futures contract lost 0.3 points around 7:30am.

Investors believe that the end of Tuesday's elections in the United States could boost equity markets, especially if the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives. As a result, political uncertainty would be reduced, and the American Congress would then be divided, which some investors appreciate.

Wall Street finished higher last night. The Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.9%, the Dow Jones Index (DJIA) rose by 1.3%, and the expanded S&P 500 index gained 1%. As of today, Asian stock exchanges are trading in a dispersed order. The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.9% in Hong Kong at the end of the session, as did the Shanghai Composite. In contrast, the Nikkei index on the Tokyo Stock Exchange gained 1.3%.

Investors are waiting for October's inflation figures in the United States to get new clues about where the Federal Reserve (Fed) might raise interest rates and how long it would keep them there. But the yield on the two-year US Treasury bond, which is particularly sensitive to changes in monetary policy, ended Monday's session in New York at its highest level in 15 years.

According to economists' forecasts, core inflation across the Atlantic in October, expected on Thursday, should slow slightly over a year, to 6.5% compared with 6.6% in September. According to BMO, “Cost pressures will continue to come from the service sector, with wages being the main driver of growth.” For analysts, the results of the mid-term elections to be held this Tuesday in the United States could have a budgetary impact and shake the bond markets.

Before the mid-term elections in the United States, the dollar rose this morning against other major currencies including the euro. According to IG, the latest polls suggest a divided Congress that could make it difficult to pass new laws and lead to a political impasse. However, adds ANZ, “the major event of the week will be the consumer price index in the United States on Thursday, as it could radically change the forecasts for Federal Reserve policy.”

Crude oil futures fell this morning. The market analyst for The Price Futures Group said that “the oil market is still a bit nervous about the demand outlook and we are waiting for more details on China's plans to reopen.”

In the weekly report on oil stocks in the United States, the focus will be mainly on demand figures due to be released Wednesday, as well as on the country's production, while fracking specialists are reluctant to increase oil production in an “uncertain environment.”

While the December contract for light sweet crude (WTI) listed on Nymex sold 30 cents at 91.49 dollars per barrel, the January contract on North Sea Brent lost 26 cents to 97.66 dollars a barrel around 7:20am.

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