The Directorate of Forecasting and Studies economic (Dpee) has published a provisional economic report. In the document, it models the impact of climate change on the activity of Senegal.

Extreme events, recurrent floods, Advance of the sea eroding the coastline and persistent droughts threaten directly the foundations of the Senegalese economy, in particular the sectors keys to agriculture, fishing and tourism.

Indeed, the Dpee report explores the ways of financing a green transition, in particular recommending the establishment progressive carbon tax and targeted subsidies for private investments.

In reality, the results are indisputable. According to the reference scenario, cumulative climate damage could result in, on average over the next 25 years, a substantial drop in GDP of 8.66%, a contraction in household consumption of 9.33% and a drop in private investment by 11.19% by 2050.

Faced with this increased vulnerability, the Management of Economic forecasting and studies (Dpee) has released a study major foresight entitled “What strategies for mobilizing resources for green growth in Senegal”.

The vision of this study is to define with specify the levers for financing growth that is both green and resilient.

The conclusions of this modeling work, based on a sophisticated economic model, known as “Megc Vert”, are proving particularly alarming.

The primary sector, especially agriculture would pay the heaviest price, with a drop in production potential exceeding 18%, due to the fall in rainfall and heat stress.

An alternative scenario, integrating a policy rigorous adaptation financed by reallocating public expenditure current ones, would not only make it possible to cancel these losses in the medium term, but to also generate, by 2050, a slight growth in GDP (+1.27%) and a rebound in private investment (+2.23%).