The idea of diversifying the national economy is not new in itself. All development plans put it in a good place, but the results observed over time can still be improved. The current economic context, dominated by the unintended consequences of the pandemic due to cov19, requires in-depth reflection that takes into account this new and unprecedented situation.

To this day, the national economy is still based on "all oil", because it contributes to more than 75% of the national Gross Domestic Product, and alone constitutes nearly 80% of the country's export revenues. This great dependence on oil is probably a major medium-term risk to the structure of the national economy. The economic consequences can be difficult for the next decade, if this dependence on oil is still in this state.
Indeed, currently, the 85% of the oil produced is exported in its raw state, only the remaining 15% is refined for national needs. This, by a refinery of very modest size with a refining capacity of about 50,000 barrels per day, with a low rate of return in white goods, for a total national oil production of nearly 350,000 barrels per day.
Under these conditions, we cannot speak of the existence of a real oil industry, because no transformation of it is done locally. The petrochemical industry is still in an embryonic state. This lack of local valorization of this important commodity, leads to a significant loss of possible additional economic benefits for the State.
Why can we talk about short-term risk?
Oil, which is a commodity with high price volatility, currently poses a serious threat to the structure of economies that depend almost exclusively on it. Indeed, the financial consequences on the economies of oil-producing countries with a high dependence on oil can easily become significant.
In recent years, the price of a barrel of Brent (benchmark oil), has fallen drastically from about $ 110 in 2014, to nearly $ 30 in the following years. Despite a substantial rise in prices observed, the opportunity was given a few months ago to witness the sale in the United States of America of oil below zero dollars per barrel, this to avoid a situation of "full-Storage", due to the fall in demand. In other words, it means that this time the oil producers have paid potential buyers to help them get rid of their unsold stocks due to a lack of storage facilities. This unprecedented situation, created by the pandemic due to covid19, which has led to the economic and industrial paralysis of the major oil-consuming countries which are: China, the United States of America and the countries of the European Union, temporarily reduced demand. Unfortunately, this reduction in demand is not yet complete.
The covid19 pandemic, which continues to reduce economic and industrial activities around the world, shows the vulnerability of the oil industry to such events. Indeed, the closure of borders, the confinement of populations all over the world, with the reduction of economic and industrial activities, have direct consequences on oil demand.
For example, the almost complete shutdown of transport activities, especially air transport, and other sectors major consumers of petroleum products, has led to a significant drop in oil demand and with it, the collapse of prices.
Unfortunately for oil, a coronavirus pandemic does not remain the only proven threat despite its immediate consequences. Other important and above all more insidious threats exist, among them we can mention:
-The growing awareness by humanity of the impact of greenhouse gases, gases generally resulting from the combustion of petroleum products, with the major consequence of climate change;
-The accelerated development of renewable energies to the detriment of fossil fuels, therefore oil;
-The acceleration of the development of the electric or hydrogen car;
-The accelerated development of the hydrogen engine for aviation, with a very important impact on kerosene consumption in the near future;
-Growing pressure from environmentalists and civil societies to eliminate petroleum-based plastic packaging;
– The current difficulties of undertaking oil activities in the growing number of so-called protected areas around the world.
-The gradual change in the mode of consumption of food products, with a preference for organic products, and this to the detriment of the use of chemical fertilizers from hydrocarbons.
In this context of a likely sharp reduction in demand, supply is unfortunately still expected to remain higher than it, as global production capacities are still enormous, especially with the ongoing production of shale oil and gas. For this, prices should not improve very significantly, except perhaps in the event of a serious geopolitical situation involving large producers such as the United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China or Iran, etc.
Faced with this prospect, several large multinationals in the oil sector have already announced and begun their transformation, because we do not say that today is already tomorrow. Currently, they are investing massively in so-called clean renewable energies, as well as in the development of batteries for electric cars etc. They thus anticipate, among other things, the inevitable decline in world oil consumption. To this end, some executives of these large companies believe that the peak of global demand for oil has been reached or will be reached shortly. We should therefore arrive at a plethora of petroleum products due to a lack of large consumers.
The change of strategy by the large multinationals, with the gradual abandonment of oil activities, could result in a considerable reduction in investment in hydrocarbon exploration in the medium term, with the consequence of a gradual decrease in the rate of renewal of reserves. This slowdown in exploration mechanically leads to a gradual but sure fall in production, due to the lack of new discoveries to be put into operation. This phase of exploration, which is often carried out by the Majors, requires considerable technical and human resources, and with it, a very significant financial risk. It is generally not done by small independent companies, which are better able to take over the exploitation of mature fields abandoned by multinationals.
In this sector of the global economy, exposure to price risk is greater for small-scale producing countries. They can only suffer from untimely fluctuations in oil prices without being able to influence them. This is due to their low level of production, which does not significantly affect world supply. The consequences on their financial income are immediate, thus causing significant difficulties in the reliability of the budgets of these States.
Faced with the picture that is currently presented, it already seems necessary to quickly get out of an economy based on the "ALL OIL" because the changes underway in the oil sector, gradually but surely affect, the use of fossil fuels, particularly oil and coal.
Fortunately, faced with this situation, strategic solutions for economic anticipation are possible.