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Organizing Systemic Resilience to crisis

20/03/2020
Source : AllAfrica
Categories: General Information

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We said three days ago that "systemic resilience can only be the result of diverse reactions
and appropriate to our individual and collective scales against shocks and according to our circumstances. It is necessary
so follow the recommendations of experts in all fields and be alert on what is being done well
elsewhere to avoid falling into amateurism.
Beyond the measures to prevent and control the spread of the disease, we said that the state
had to prepare a countercyclical response to compensate for the expected slowdown in the private sector in the limits of our balances to be managed. This, by mobilizing part of the financial resources that the
The domestic financial sector would allocate to the private sector, and finance a higher-than-expected budget deficit
accelerate the repayment of state arrears, grant tax credits to the most
sectors affected and observable by their tax returns, and compensate for our shortfalls and needs in
currencies at the IMF. At the end of this crisis, we said that we will have to assess our resilience capacities
systemic in all vital areas of our country. In particular, we will have to reconsider our options
economics which, as we have argued elsewhere, do not go in the direction of resilience
systemic because it stems from the choice of the state or foreign partners rather than the diversity of
SMEs in the informal sector and regional hubs to empower.
In the interim, it is important to know that a systemic problem is not a sectoral or
multisectoral with identifiable constituent elements because they are variable. As a result, it is not possible to make an inventory
comprehensive of the building blocks of a systemic macroeconomic problem. It's in the
diversity of appropriate responses that a resilient system returns more quickly to its previous state.
Therefore, the systemic response must be immediate and first and foremost macroeconomic. In the case of Senegal,
and the WAEMU countries, this response can only be budgetary. The central bank must not be
solicited neither by the states nor by the banks, without budgetary reframing because everything supports banks or
the central bank will ultimately be fiscal in our current monetary framework. Non-performing loans
refinanced by the central bank to allow banks to finance losses of affected companies
can only be done with the guarantee of the state, which brings us back to a double budgetary problem (that of the
balance sheets of the central bank and that of the banks). This liquidity, the central bank can not
support it without the corresponding foreign exchange reserves that only states can fetch to
not mortgage the recovery after the crisis. All this should suffice as proof that there is an urgent need
adopt the ECO UEMOA currency in 2020, to make it more flexible, and to give the BCEAO autonomy of objective
on the exchange rate.
It is therefore necessary through the indebtedness of the state immediately to mobilize the resources available to us in
International Monetary Fund in this circumstance, and which can go to more than 150 billion, as far as we
concerns, and that will only add about 1 percent of GDP to our debt. These amounts in b< reserves/> exchange rates will also allow the central bank to support an additional volume of government securities
in FCFA and mitigate the impact on aggregate demand, particularly in the services sector. Implementation
a new budgetary framework must be immediate by not reducing budgetary appropriations
running until more visibility. The appropriate use of this liquidity resulting from a deficit
Higher than expected budget by citizens will ensure proper distribution without bureaucracy
State and lobbying do not determine the destination. That option should be the Liberals' option.

In a context where the state and the BCEAO seek to accelerate the financial inclusion of populations, the state has there
another opportunity. The allocation of a forfaire amount (25,000 CFA) to 3 million Senegalese, through
electronic money accounts (orange money, freecash etc ...) to be subscribed by the recipients,
would represent $75 billion of the amounts available to the IMF. This should be done with incentives
the use of the amounts allocated in electronic form at operator level. For implementation,
It would be enough to allocate securities to these companies that will only liquefy them if necessary in banks and through
they to the BCEAO which would hold the counterpart in currencies mobilized by the States. This
policy Cash transfers is currently being implemented by several countries to support aggregate demand
  This option is also more liberal and fairer towards populations that
all contribute to the sustainability of our debt, not just companies. The diversity of reactions
companies and individuals and their ability to adapt to the crisis as it unfolds Unfolding is not to be underestimated. It is therefore necessary to avoid too centralizing the government support the resilience of our economic system.

 

 

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